Research Paper – Nursing Experts Help

Research
Paper Instructions

Define the
chosen variableNew one-family houses sold (NHS)Collect the data for the variableData
sourcewww.economagic.com or other sourcesMonthly data
and not seasonally adjusted (NSA)Time period
–January
1975 to the presentEnter the data in Excel according to
ForecastX format1/1/1975
for Jan. 1975 and 2/1/1975 for Feb. 1975Plot the graphfor whole seriesForecastX
— PreviewACF for
the whole seriesForecastX
–AnalyzeIdentify
the trendACF for
the first
differenced seriesForecastX
– Analyze – Differencing – Non-Seasonal >1Identify
seasonalityDecide
the sample period for model selectionHistorical
period: 1/1/1975-12/1/2010Holdout
period: 1/1/2011-12/1/2011Select
models according to the data patternTable
2.1, p. 58Time-series models: Modified naïve model, Winters’exponential
smoothing, Time-series Decomposition, and ARIMARegression
mode:NHS
= f (IR,
DPI,
dummy variables)—need data for IR (30-year mortgage rate), DPI(disposable
personal income) and dummy variables (for seasonality)Perform
estimation and forecasting for the data in the historical period, 1/2001 –
12/2010ForecastX
– Forecast Method – choose modelsForecastX
– Statistics — RMSEFor
regression model, standard report shows the forecasts for independent variablesCompare MAPEs and RMSEs of different
models for the historical and holdout periodsPerform ex-ante forecast – 11/2011-12/2012Use
the whole series, 1/2001 – 10/2011Either
choose the best model or combine two models
 
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