Financial Modeling

ICG, Inc has been struggling to launch a new product for the past 12 months.
Given the info below, what is the uncertainty distribution of the expected revenues of a new product?
The average price for the product can be minimally $10, most likely $12 and maximally $15.
Sales may be between 1,000 and 100,000 products, with most likely sales of 30,000.
Use the regular PERT distributions (see a description of the Pert distribution in @Risk) to determine:

1.Average expected total revenue
2.What is the probability that expected revenue will be less than $123,123
3.What is the probability that expected revenue will be higher than $800,000

OBS: Simulation settings: 5,000 iterations

Sampling Type: = Latin Hypercube
Initial Seed Fixed =123
RGN = Mersenne Twister
Multiple simulations All use same seeds

4. What is the difference between choosing static values or random values for distribution returns when a

simulation is not running?

Sample Solution

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