PSY-520 Graduate Statistics

PSY-520 Graduate Statistics

Topic 3 – Probability Project

Directions:
Use the following information to complete the assignment. While APA format is
not required for the body of this assignment, solid academic writing is
expected, and documentation of sources should be presented using APA formatting
guidelines, which can be found in the APA Style Guide, located in the Student
Success Center.

There are many misconceptions about probability which
may include the following.

• All
  events are equally likely
• Later
  events may be affected by or compensate for earlier ones
• When
  determining probability from statistical data, sample size is irrelevant
• Results
  of games of skill are unaffected by the nature of the participants
• “Lucky/Unlucky”
  numbers can influence random events
• In
  random event involving selection, results are dependent on number rather than
  rations
• If
  events are random then the results of a series of independent events are
  equally likely

The following statements are all incorrect. Explain
the statements and the errors fully using the probability rules discussed in
topic two.

1. I
   have flipped and unbiased coin three times and got heads, it is more likely to
   get tails the next time I flip it.

When flipping a  coin, there is an equal chance that it can
land on heads or tails.

• The
  Rovers play Mustangs. The Rovers can win, loose, or draw, so the probability
  that they win is 1/3.
• I
  roll two dice and ad the results. The probability of getting a total of 6 is
  1/12 because there are 12 different possibilities and 6 is one of them.
• Mr.
  Purple has to have a major operation. 90% of the people who have this operation
  make a complete recovery. There is a 90% chance that Mr. Purple will make a
  complete recovery if he has this operation.
• I
  flip two coins. The probability of getting heads and tails is 1/3 because I can
  get Heads and Heads, Heads and Tails, or Tails and Tails.
• 13
  is an unlucky number so you are less likely to win raffles with ticket number
  13 than with a different dumber.

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