Conditional Probability

  1. Conditional Probability

Suppose the probability that a student takes Economics and Psychology is 0.09. The probability that a student takes Economics is 0.70. What is the probability that a student takes Psychology given that the student is taking Economics?

  1. Bayes’ Theorem

Suppose that 1% of the population has a certain genetic defect. An individual can take a test to determine whether they have the genetic defect. The chance of a positive test result given that the person actually has the genetic defect is 90%. The chance of a positive test result if the person does not have the genetic defect is 7%. If a person gets a positive test result, what are the odds they actually have the genetic defect?

  1. Real Options: Decision Tree Analysis

It is the beginning of January 2014 and you have been offered the following deal to go heli-skiing. If you pick the first week in January 2015 and pay for your vacation now, you can get a week of heli-skiing for $2500. However, if you cannot ski because the helicopters cannot fly due to bad weather, there is no snow, or you get sick, you do not get a refund. There is a 40% chance that you will not be able to ski. If you wait until the last minute and go only if you know that the conditions are perfect and you are healthy, the vacation will cost $4000.

You estimate that the pleasure you get from heli-skiing is worth $6000 per week to you (if you had to pay any more than that, you would choose not to go).

(a) If your cost of capital if 8% per year, should you book ahead or wait?

(b) Draw the decision tree.

  1. Financial Options

(a) What is a protective put option?

(b) What is the payoff of this option?

(c) Illustrate the payoff on a graph with stock price on the x-axis and the payoff
on the y-axis.

Choosing the Research Paper Topic and Developing an Annotated Bibliography

Assignment 3: Choosing the Research Paper Topic and Developing an Annotated Bibliography

Part 1: Choosing a Research Topic

From your examination of the literature dealing with the three topics of interest to you through M1 Assignment 1, narrow down your focus to the one topic that interests you the most. Be sure to choose a topic that is a driving force in contemporary forensic psychology and associated services. 

Once you choose a topic, you should condense it and state it in the form of a research question or a thesis statement. Explain the topic in terms of its importance in the field. Your topic must be narrow so that you can adequately cover the topic in a 15- to 25-page paper. (For example, posttraumatic stress disorder [PTSD] would be far too broad a topic. A more focused topic within this might be researching the efficacy of cognitive behavioral therapy in treating returning veterans with PTSD.)

Provide a 1- to 2-page overview of your topic, illustrating how it is a current and important topic in forensic psychology.

All written assignments and responses should follow APA rules for attributing sources.

Note: Your instructor will approve or provide you feedback on the chosen topic. In cases where there are other students studying the same topic, the instructor will consult with you about modifying the topic or even selecting another one.

Part 2: Building an Annotated Bibliography

This part of the assignment focuses on building an annotated bibliography for your chosen research topic.

Throughout this module, expand your research by including a minimum of twelve peer-reviewed scholarly resources and the contact information for one expert interview (the interview can be conducted via e-mail or telephone or in person at a later date).

Your research should include a combination of the following types of sources:

  • Empirical research—including at least one example of qualitative research
  • Theoretical articles
  • At least one expert interview
  • At least two landmark studies

Note: While minimums are specified above, you are encouraged to include more than one expert interview, one qualitative research study, or two landmark studies to create the right balance of studies to effectively address your topic.

You may visit the page titled “Researching Your Chosen Topic” in Module 1 to read more about sources relevant to your research paper.

Expert Interview 

(Schedule this early in the course.)

Use the Argosy University online library resources to find, explore, and research these types of sources. To identify an appropriate expert for a personal interview, look for an author of one of the articles that you find interesting; this should be an author you would consider an interesting person to interview, especially if you were left with some questions after reading a particular study he or she had authored. You may also find this author interesting if his or her views contradict what other scholars have found about your topic.

Faculty members of Argosy University around the country, other universities, and forensic areas of education and service are also good choices for interviews.

These personal interviews may be conducted in person, by phone, or by e-mail, as necessary.

Create your annotated bibliography in a Microsoft Word document. Use APA style for compiling the bibliography and developing the annotations. The annotations should summarize the reference in no more than two sentences, and a final sentence should explain the relationship between the study and the research topic. Be sure to indicate which type of study each source is (empirical, qualitative, theoretical, landmark, or expert interview).

All written assignments and responses should follow APA rules for attributing sources.

Assignment 3 Grading CriteriaMaximum Points
Identified a research topic that is a driving force in forensic psychology and services today.12
Presented a research question or a thesis statement that is clear and narrow enough to be researched in a 15- to 25-page paper.12
Described the importance of your research question to the field of forensic psychology.12
Included the complete reference in the bibliography for each source.12
Included annotations that are all relevant to the research topic.12
Represented seminal works in the field you are researching through the landmark studies identified in the annotated bibliography.12
Displayed a balance of sources in the content of the bibliography: empirical, qualitative, expert interview, theoretical, and landmark sources.12
Wrote in a clear, concise, and organized manner; demonstrated ethical scholarship in the accurate representation and attribution of sources; and displayed accurate spelling, grammar, and punctuation.16
Total:100

What are your now more informed thoughts about this controversial issue? Should these medications continue to be used with depressed children and adolescents? Why or why not?

For this assignment:

  • Review the DSM-5 Abnormal Psychology by Ronald Comer of unipolar depression in Chapter 8.
  • Review the articles, “Assessment of Childhood Depression” and “Pediatric Antidepressant Use After the Black-Box Warning,” paying particular attention to the discussion of antidepressant use in children and adolescents, as well as associated risk factors and alternative treatment methods.
  • Review the abstract of the article from the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) that includes a meta-analytic review of randomized clinical trials of antidepressant use with children and adolescents. 
  • Access and review the article “Epidemiology of Depression and Suicide” listed in the Learning Resources, focusing on the section titled “Age-related demographics.”
  • Watch the PBS NewsHour segment on the risk of suicide in adolescents who are taking antidepressant medications. The link to this video segment is included in the required Learning Resources list.

The assignment: (2 pages)

  • Based on your review of these materials above, appraise the current research evidence regarding suicide risks associated with the use of antidepressant medications in the treatment of depression in children and adolescents. In your response, answer the following questions:
    • What preconceptions, if any, did you bring to this controversial issue, perhaps based on your personal experiences or the experiences of family members, friends, or other loved ones?
    • Evaluate the materials related to antidepressant use in children and adolescents. What did you find surprising? What did you find disturbing? What other reactions did you have to these materials? 
    • What are your now more informed thoughts about this controversial issue? Should these medications continue to be used with depressed children and adolescents? Why or why not? What alternative treatments might you consider? Explain and justify your stance on this issue.

Support your written Assignment with specific references to all resources used in its preparation.You are asked to provide and use at least two references of those listed above plus the required reference of the Ronald Cromer Abnormal Psychology DSM-5 (2013-2014). Any other referereces for those resources not included in the Learning Resources for this course please provide references.

Using Empirical Support to Make Ethical Decisions

5-3 Short Paper: Using Empirical Support to Make Ethical DecisionsShort Paper

The focus of this paper is to conduct online research for evidence-based practice (EBP). Describe the ethical importance of utilizing evidence-based practices in psychology, and summarize two or three EBPs you may use in your career.

Module Resources Top of Form

Textbook: Bottom of Form

\\Decoding the Ethics Code: A Practical Guide for Psychologists

Chapter 5

Library Article: Self-Care Practices and Perceived Stress Levels Among Psychology Graduate Students

This article discusses the stress and self-care issues faced by psychology graduate students and offers supportive strategies for self-care. This article will help you in completing this week’s journal assignment.

Library Article: The Dissemination and Implementation of Evidence-Based Psychological Treatments: A Review of Current Efforts

This article reviews the importance of using empirically supported techniques in the field of psychology and examines the recent changes at the state and national levels.This article will help you in completing this week’s discussion and journal assignment

Attachments:

psy_570_short_paper_rubric1.doc

psy570_m5_overview-professional_competence.pdf

PSY 570 Short Paper Rubric

Requirements of submission: You should incorporate scholarly sources as evidence (three or more) within your short paper responses. Short paper assignments must follow these formatting guidelines: double spacing, 12-point Times New Roman font, one-inch margins, and APA citations. Page length requirements: 2–4 pages, not including APA title or reference page.

Critical ElementsExemplaryProficientNeeds ImprovementNot EvidentValue
Application of Ethical ContentDemonstrates a comprehensive application of the ethical course content appropriate to the prompt(27-30)Demonstrates application of the ethical course content appropriate to the prompt (24-26)Demonstrates some application of the ethical course content appropriate to the prompt (21-23)Demonstrates limited or no application of the ethical course content (0-20)30
Conclusions Demonstrates insightful conclusions that are thoroughly defended with scholarly evidence; response extends beyond reiteration of module content(27-30)Demonstrates conclusions that are defended with scholarly evidence; some extensions beyond module content  (24-26)Demonstrates minimal conclusions that are minimally defended with scholarly evidence; no extensions beyond module content (21-23)Does not demonstrate insightful conclusions; scholarly evidence is not used appropriately to defend conclusions  (0-20)30
ResearchIncorporates three or more scholarly resources effectively that reflect depth and breadth of research used to develop the paper(18-20)Incorporates two scholarly resources effectively that reflect depth and breadth of research used to develop the paper (16-17)Incorporates one scholarly resource reflecting depth and breadth of research used to develop the paper (14-15)Does not incorporate scholarly resources that reflect depth and breadth of research used to develop the paper (0-13)20
APA WritingNo errors related to APA organization, grammar, style, and citations(18-20)Minor errors related to APA organization, grammar, style, and citations(16-17)Some errors related to APA organization, grammar, style, and citations(14-15)Major APA errors related to organization, grammar, style, and citations(0-13)20
Earned TotalComments:100%