Stationary versions

A written report with answers to the questions of the homework, plus code, should be submitted via Canvas. Use Python Jupyter Notebook or Google Colab to code, but other coding methods will not be penalized. Use built-in functions or packages whenever possible.
In ppi.xls you will find monthly data for the Producer Price Index. We need a quarterly model for the PPI, so that we can come up with forecasts (up to 4 quarters ahead). There is no single right answer for forecasting. Well-trained econometricians can end up choosing different specifications even though they are confronted with the same sample. However, there definitely are some wrong answers. This is a classical economic forecast problem. The methods used here can be easily adapted to other time series analysis such as retail sales forecast.
Part A
We look for a stationary version of this series. Using the entire sample and extract end-of-quarter data for all following analysis. Make following plots:
i. Plot PPI in levels.
ii. Plot ∆PPI (first-order difference of PPI).
iii. Plot ∆ln(PPI).
Part B
Which version of the series looks stationary to you and why? Let’s call the stationary version 𝑦𝑡 = 𝑓(PPI𝑡).
Part C
Plot ACF of yt for 12 quarters. What do you conclude? If the ACF converges very slowly, re-think whether yt really is stationary.
Part D
Plot the PACF of yt for 12 quarters. What do you conclude?
Part E
On the basis of ACF and PACF, select four different ARMA(p, q) model specifications (p and q) to model yt. For each model:
i. Using entire sample, estimate coefficients and standard errors. Check stationarity (hint: does coefficients meet characteristic root constraint).
ii. Plot ACF and report Q-stat (Ljung-Box) of residuals for 12 quarters. Also plot residual distribution. Do residuals represent white noise?
iv. Calculate AIC. Select a preferred model on the basis of these diagnostics. Explain your choice.
Part F (Optional, no penalty if skip; extra bonus if complete with right answer)
Re-estimate your four models using only data up to 2000.IV and compute the MSPE (mean squared prediction error) on the remainder of the sample for one-quarter ahead forecasts:

where H is the length of the hold-back (test) sample, and ei is the one-step ahead prediction error. Also report the MSPE assuming there is no predictability in yt (hint: no predictability means that your best forecast of future is the latest value available). What do you conclude?
Guideline and References
The following links are external online examples. You may find some codes in those examples useful. Meanwhile, I encourage you to use Google search as a way of self-learning beyond the materials provided by professor.
• https://medium.com/@stallonejacob/time-series-forecast-a-basic-introduction-using-python- 414fcb963000
• https://kanoki.org/2020/04/30/time-series-analysis-and-forecasting-with-arima-python/
• https://machinelearningmastery.com/time-series-forecasting-methods-in-python-cheat- sheet/
• https://blog.usejournal.com/time-series-analysis-in-python-3b815b5f28f2
• https://www.statsmodels.org/stable/tsa.html

Sample Solution

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The Hong Kong Police

Part A
You have been commissioned by the Hong Kong Police to carry out a
small-scale study of the work of the Police Tactical Units (PTU) in
Kowloon West and New Territories North with the following objectives:
• to understand how police constables and other officers carry out their
duties in general;
• to find out whether patterns of anti-crime patrols can be identified
(e.g. more frequent patrolling at a particular period of time of the day)
and if so, why such patterns exist;
• to find out whether the police conduct ‘stop and search’ checks
differently for different groups of suspects (youths, adults, males,
females, etc.); and
• if the checks are conducted differently, to investigate why distinct
approaches are taken.
Answer the following questions.
1 What qualitative research methods will you use to attain the above
research objectives?
2 Why do you think these methods will enable you to collect the
necessary data for achieving your research objectives?
3 What difficulties or problems are likely to be encountered in
employing the chosen methods for the purpose of this research? How
could these difficulties or problems be overcome or at least
minimized?
Note: You will definitely need to use more than one method — a certain
method may be more suitable for a particular research objective, while
another method may be more suitable for another objective. In such
cases, explain why this is so when you answer the questions.
Part B
For Part B, you are required to read (1) the editorials and (2) the lead
stories (頭條新聞)in the following newspapers for the period 10 to 20
August 2021:
• South China Morning Post
• Ming Pao
• Oriental Daily
Assignment File 15
Sometimes, the editorials may contain more than one item, in which case
you should consider all of them.
1 Try to identify whether or not there are distinct differences in the
types of issues addressed in the editorials and the types of news
covered in the lead stories of the three newspapers.
2 If there are clear differences, explain what these differences are.
Please note that you should substantiate your arguments with
evidence derived from the data collected.
3 If you cannot identify any distinct differences, explain why you
consider this to be the case. Again, please remember to substantiate
your arguments with evidence.

Sample Solution

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Discuss illegal drug use, illegal prostitution, and money laundering.

TOPIC :    Use at least five articles from scholarly sources in a paper that discusses illegal drug use, illegal prostitution, and money laundering.

Each student is required to complete the term project, which is an 8-10 page research paper in APA Style. The project should have 8-10 pages not counting the cover, abstract and reference page.

Assignment Instructions

AN OVERVIEW OF RESEARCH PAPER REQUIREMENTS

All work should be submitted in APA style, which includes (if sources are used) in-line citations and a References page. No exceptions.

Note that references used for your research need to be peer-reviewed/scholarly journals. These journals typically have the following characteristics:

1. articles are reviewed by a panel of experts before they are accepted for publication;
2. articles are written by a scholar or specialist in the field;
3. articles report on original research or experimentation;
4. are often published by professional associations;
5. utilize terminology associated with the discipline.

Research Paper Instructions:

Do not include quotes in your work. I want to see your critical thinking skills on display and not a string of quotes written by published authors. Your analysis is what is needed for a successful paper. At this point in your educational journey, you should have solid substance and proper academic formatting in your college-level writing assignments. Students will be graded on both so make sure you turn in your best work. Do not wait until the last minute to research, write, format, and edit. Proper time management is required to turn in a quality paper that highlights your criminal justice writing.

Find at least five, peer-reviewed articles that cover your chosen topic from the list above. Again, you are required to use scholarly, peer-reviewed journals, in-text citations, and provide a reference page for this paper.

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Leadership Paradox and Inter-team Relations

Leadership Paradox and Inter-team Relations
A.     What is the leadership paradox? Give some reasons why a leader can encounter difficulty in newly formed teams or groups using a participative management system. Support your discussion with at least two (2) external sources.
B.     Present a discussion of the strategies for encouraging participative management in the workforce, and how to implement each of these strategies. Support your discussion with at least two (2) external sources.
C.    What serious biases or misassumptions do groups that are involved in inter-team conflict sometimes experience? How do these biases and prejudices affect the ability of teams to accomplish their goals? Support your discussion with at least two (2) external sources.
Specific Instructions:
See class discussion/posting requirements.
Be sure to support your work with specific citations from this week’s Learning Resources and any additional sources.
Read a selection of your colleagues’ postings.
Respond to at least 3 of your colleagues’ postings in one or more of the following ways:
• Ask a probing question, substantiated with additional background information, evidence or research.
• Share an insight from having read your colleagues’ postings, synthesizing the information to provide new perspectives.
• Offer and support an alternative perspective using readings from the classroom or from your own research in the Campbellsville University Library
• Validate an idea with your own experience and additional research.
• Make suggestions based on additional evidence drawn from readings or after synthesizing multiple postings.
• Expand on your colleagues’ postings by providing additional insights or contrasting perspectives based on readings and evidence.
Return to this Discussion several times to read the responses to your initial posting. Note what you have learned and/or any insights you have gained as a result of the comments your colleagues made.
Response-1(Karthik)
 
The leadership paradox entails the point at which a group needs a pioneer however the nearness of a pioneer debilitates the self-sufficiency of the group. Leadership paradox is important since it frequently challenges the part of a pioneer bringing about negative responses to directing, protecting from change, part struggle, refusal of surrender control, the worry of seeming to need capacity and uneasiness of professional stability. To this effect, the group leader can face the existing circumstances with the recently framed group when the term coordinated and understand leadership hypothesis.
Many organizational and structural changes are common with new leadership. Newly formed team leadership also brings many advantages and disadvantages to it. Participatory (participative) management is a phenomenon where employee’s opinion is also considered and taken into account for decision making. It is based on the notion that when the employees invest their time and work hard at the workplace, he/she should be given an opportunity to participate in the decision-making activities such as setting goals, determining work schedules and making suggestions. Participative management, however, involves more than letting employees take part in making decisions. It involves management treating, considering and respecting the employee’s ideas and suggestions. Four processes affect participation; they are:
1.      Information sharing: This is concerned with keeping employees informed about the economic status of the company.
2.      Training: This involves increasing the skill levels of employees and contributing development chances that allow them to use new skills to make effective decisions regarding the organization as a whole.
3.      Employee decision making: This can come in various forms and can vary from determining work schedules to deciding on budgets or processes.
4.      Rewards: This should be linked to suggestions, ideas, and performance.
Intergroup conflict occurs when two or more workgroups of any type disagree with each other. Workplace disputes and differences between groups or within a group may arise because of misconception, disagreements, intercultural differences, poor social exchange, poor communication or various other situations. Competitiveness may also cause unhealthy conflicts opposing focus groups.
References:
Hordos, L. (2018, June 06). What Are the Causes of Intergroup Conflict? Retrieved from https://bizfluent.com/info-8463616-causes-intergroup-conflict.html
Tekleab, A. G., Quigley, N. R., & Tesluk, P. E. (2009). A Longitudinal Study of Team Conflict, Conflict Management, Cohesion, and Team Effectiveness. Group & Organization Management,34(2), 170-205. doi:10.1177/1059601108331218
PARTICIPATIVE MANAGEMENT. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.referenceforbusiness.com/management/Or-Pr/Participative-Management.html
Greenfield, W.M. “Decision Making and Employee Engagement.” Employment Relations Today 31, no. 2 (2004): 13–24.
Response-2(RINI)
 
Leadership paradox is being an effective leader at times gives autonomy / freedom to team and also encouraging a team member at some times to lead.  To be the natural leader according to Forbes article you need to have 5 paradoxes:
1.       A good leader will learn from failure and will not take it negative.
2.      A good leader will not be arrogant and egoistic.
3.      A leader will learn from taking initiative and innovative
4.      A leader will try for the growth of team and to enhance the team knowledge
5.      A leader will not force his or her decision on team , but will participate team and take consensus decision which will bring team unity
If leader is using participative management system sometimes there are the chances of team conflict because of ego issue between any members of team. Everybody’s decision cannot be accepted. So especially when a new team is there they may not accept the leader if they think he or she does not possess the qualities that a leader should have.
When it comes to participative management style I encourage that more than autocratic or Hitler style which is more authoritative giving no democracy. Participative management brings co-operation and support. I used strategy of delegating the task and responsibility and participative decision making strategy in a company where I was working as an HR lead. So I noticed that helped in reducing work pressure and makes ones task easy. In participative management every employees feel like they are part of the company and give them feeling of being valued. Every the outcome of decision making is participative so one person does not get accountable for it and get stress out. So a participative management gives leader more room and relief and to work on important part to make team stronger.
Sometime in team inter group conflict occurs or kind of debate especially in bringing some change in a company which may be very small but there are few member who encourages changes and few of them resist. So that affects overall team atmosphere and positivity. And a team lead has to handle the situation which is not that easy.
References:
·         Farrell, M. (2018). Leadership Reflections: Leadership Paradoxes. Journal of Library Administration, 58(2), 166-173. doi:10.1080/01930826.2017.1412712
·         Waldman, D. A., & Bowen, D. E. (2016). Learning to be a paradox-savvy leader. The Academy Of Management Perspectives, 30(3), 316-327. doi:10.5465/amp.2015.0070
·         Park, J., Lee, K., & Kim, P. S. (2016). Participative Management and Perceived Organizational Performance: The Moderating Effects of Innovative Organizational Culture. Public Performance & Management Review, 39(2), 316-336. doi:10.1080/15309576.2015.1108773
·         Jago, A. G. (2017). A contrarian view: Culture and participative management. European Management Journal, 35(5), 645-650. doi:10.1016/j.emj.2016.10.001
Respone-3(Anurag)
 
The conundrum is additionally part of the everyday charge of Christian pioneers. While we are dependable to the associations and houses of worship we lead, our definitive responsibility is to God himself. (Baumgartner, 2011) Any pioneer who has obsessed about such issues realizes that the strain is some of the time horrendous. A comparative strain emerges when pioneers need to choose how to explore between watching over people and the necessities of the network. In the meantime, isolated countries vouch for the way that driving in a period of progress doesn’t involve simple answers that overlook the intricate substances holy places and associations confront each day. We trust that the appearance in this diary Wi-Fi empowers you to live more productively with the truth of oddity in Christian initiative. (Peus, Braun, and Schyns, 2016)
B) This developing detach between existing exact research and ebb and flow issues in medicinal services administration speaks to an essential hole in the writing. In this way, the reason for our investigation was to inspect the effect of participative-administration worker observations on four basic representative level results: client benefit, restorative blunders, burnout, and turnover goals. With that in mind, the investigation drew on a vast example of representatives spread crosswise over more than 300 divisions in an expansive medicinal services association situated in the southeastern United States. (Angermeier, Dunford, Boss, Smith, and Boss, 2009)
This is an exceptionally disputable issue, yet numerous trustworthy sources guarantee there has happened a huge weakening in levels of representative occupation fulfillment and assurance, alongside an orderly ascent in individual maladjustment, social estrangement, and even psychosomatic disease. Usually called attention to that these indications of individual worry thus cause considerable expenses to associations through higher work force turnover rates, non-appearance, lateness, attack, work struggle, and other such issues. As of late, numerous experts have guaranteed that the present type of administration is likewise in charge of a related pattern toward declining levels of profitability, which is expensive for associations and the main consideration in the ceaseless ascent of swelling rates. The adequacy of representative support is borne out by the way that most of these countries have exhibited agreeable work relations and picks up in financial efficiency which frequently surpasses that of the United States. (Halal, and Brown, 1981)
C) We accommodate these two restricting lines of thought by presenting the inside power structure of groups as the key arbitrator that decides if between group strife diminishes or advances control battles inside groups. We hypothesize that while the basic destiny of individuals from libertarian groups makes them liable to join and pool assets when confronting a between-group struggle, the power contrasts in various leveled groups cause individuals to be diversely affected by the asset undermining between group strife, driving them to have alternate points of view and concerns, subsequently advancing inner battles about assets. Like this, such power battles are required to adversely influence group execution. We tried these speculations with a research facility investigation of 85 three-man transaction groups and a field investigation of 158 authoritative work groups, and find, of course, that an asset undermining between group strife advances execution diminishing force battles in various leveled groups. (At the point when between-group strife spirals into intra-group control battles, 2017)
Exploring the directing impact of shared authority may help settle the irregularity in past investigations. From one viewpoint, shared administration mirrors a between authoritative group’s circumstance where various colleagues take part in the initiative and are portrayed by basic communitarian leadership and shared obligation regarding results. It is observed to be a key factor affecting the peace making since this administration can help colleagues cooperate toward their common objectives without relinquishing their advantages. Then again, extraordinary to intra-authoritative groups, between hierarchical group should confront muddled clashes coming about because of incongruence of authoritative culture and objectives, control differentials. (Hu, Chen, Gu, Huang, and Liu, 2017)
References
Peus, C., Braun, S., & Schyns, B. (2016). Leadership Lessons From Compelling Contexts. Bingley, UK: Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
Halal, W. E., & Brown, B. S. (1981). Participative Management: Myth and Reality. California Management Review.
Hu, N., Chen, Z., Gu, J., Huang, S., & Liu, H. (2017). Conflict and creativity in inter-organizational teams. International Journal of Conflict Management.