fin 464 mini case 1
Please answer the following questions (your answers should be less than 1000 words or less than 2 pages):
1. (15 points) Estrella (NY Fed) is quite certain that the yield curve is a good predictor of future economic activity. From the case, or the link to his FAQs, answer the following questions:
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b. What matters most – the level of the term spread, the change in the spread, or the level of short term interest rates?
c. Discuss why a yield curve inversion should lead to a recession.
2. (15 points) Dick Berner (Morgan Stanley) is a bit more skeptical about the predictive power of the yield curve. Does he just not understand Estrella’s overwhelming evidences, or does his skepticism rest on solid reasoning?
3. (10 points) How is the U.S. yield curve currently sloped? What does it affect your forecast of economic activity?
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fin 464 mini case 1 was first posted on July 22, 2020 at 6:58 am.
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