How did the New Deal differ from the Progressive Era?

EIGHTH EDITION

Statistics for Business and Economics

Paul Newbold University of Nottingham

William L. Carlson St. Olaf College

Betty M. Thorne Stetson University

Boston Columbus Indianapolis New York San Francisco Upper Saddle River

Amsterdam Cape Town Dubai London Madrid Milan Munich Paris Montréal Toronto

Delhi Mexico City São Paulo Sydney Hong Kong Seoul Singapore Taipei Tokyo

Global Edition

 

 

Editorial Director: Sally Yagan Editor in Chief: Donna Battista Senior Acquisitions Editor: Chuck Synovec Senior Acquisitions Editor, Global Edition: Steven Jackson Editor, Global Edition: Leandra Paoli Senior Editorial Project Manager: Mary Kate Murray Editorial Assistant: Ashlee Bradbury Director of Marketing: Maggie Moylan Executive Marketing Manager: Anne Fahlgren Marketing Manager, International: Dean Erasmus

Senior Managing Editor: Judy Leale Production Project Manager: Jacqueline A. Martin Senior Operations Supervisor: Arnold Vila Operations Specialist: Cathleen Petersen Art Director: Steve Frim Cover Designer: Jodi Notowitz Cover Art: © Zoe – Fotolia.com Media Project Manager: John Cassar Associate Media Project Manager: Sarah Peterson Full-Service Project Management: PreMediaGlobal, Inc.

Pearson Education Limited Edinburgh Gate Harlow Essex CM20 2JE England

and Associated Companies throughout the world

Visit us on the World Wide Web at: www.pearson.com/uk

© Pearson Education Limited 2013

The rights of Paul Newbold, William L. Carlson and Betty Thorne to be identified as authors of this work have been asserted by them in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.

Authorised adaptation from the United States edition, entitled Statistics for Business and Economics, 8th Edition, ISBN: 978-0-13-274565-9 by Paul Newbold, William L. Carlson and Betty Thorne, published by Pearson Education, Inc., © 2013.

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without either the prior written permission of the publisher or a licence permitting restricted copying in the United Kingdom is- sued by the Copyright Licensing Agency Ltd, Saffron House, 6–10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS.

All trademarks used herein are the property of their respective owners. The use of any trademark in this text does not vest in the author or publisher any trademark ownership rights in such trademarks, nor does the use of such trademarks imply any affiliation with or endorsement of this book by such owners.

Microsoft® and Windows® are registered trademarks of the Microsoft Corporation in the U.S.A. and other countries. This book is not sponsored or endorsed by or affiliated with the Microsoft Corporation.

Microsoft and/or its respective suppliers make no representations about the suitability of the information contained in the documents and related graphics published as part of the services for any purpose. All such documents and related graphics are provided “as is” without warranty of any kind. Microsoft and/or its respective suppliers hereby disclaim all warranties and conditions with regard to this information, including all warranties and conditions of merchantabil- ity, whether express, implied or statutory, fitness for a particular purpose, title and non-infringement. In no event shall Microsoft and/or its respective suppliers be liable for any special, indirect or consequential damages or any damages whatsoever resulting from loss of use, data or profits, whether in an action of contract, negligence or other tortious ac- tion, arising out of or in connection with the use or performance of information available from the services.

The documents and related graphics contained herein could include technical inaccuracies or typographical er- rors. Changes are periodically added to the information herein. Microsoft and/or its respective suppliers may make improvements and/or changes in the product(s) and/or the program(s) described herein at any time. Partial screen shots may be viewed in full within the software version specified.

Credits and acknowledgments borrowed from other sources and reproduced, with permission, in this textbook appear on the appropriate page within the text.

ISBN 13: 978-0-273-76706-0 ISBN 10: 0-273-76706-2

British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 16 15 14 13 12

Typeset in Palatino LT Std by PreMediaGlobal, Inc. Printed and bound by Courier Kendallville in The United States of America

The publisher’s policy is to use paper manufactured from sustainable forests.

 

 

I dedicate this book to Sgt. Lawrence Martin Carlson, who gave his life in service to his country on November 19, 2006, and to his mother, Charlotte Carlson, to his sister and brother, Andrea and Douglas, to his children, Savannah, and Ezra, and to his nieces, Helana, Anna, Eva Rose, and Emily.

William L. Carlson

I dedicate this book to my husband, Jim, and to our family, Jennie, Ann, Renee, Jon, Chris, Jon, Hannah, Leah, Christina, Jim, Wendy, Marius, Mihaela, Cezara, Anda, and Mara Iulia.

Betty M. Thorne

 

 

4

Dr. Bill Carlson is professor emeritus of economics at St. Olaf College, where he taught for 31 years, serving several times as department chair and in various administrative func- tions, including director of academic computing. He has also held leave assignments with the U.S. government and the University of Minnesota in addition to lecturing at many dif- ferent universities. He was elected an honorary member of Phi Beta Kappa. In addition, he spent 10 years in private industry and contract research prior to beginning his career at St. Olaf. His education includes engineering degrees from Michigan Technological University (BS) and from the Illinois Institute of Technology (MS) and a PhD in quantitative man- agement from the Rackham Graduate School at the University of Michigan. Numerous research projects related to management, highway safety, and statistical education have produced more than 50 publications. He received the Metropolitan Insurance Award of Merit for Safety Research. He has previously published two statistics textbooks. An im- portant goal of this book is to help students understand the forest and not be lost in the trees. Hiking the Lake Superior trail in Northern Minnesota helps in developing this goal. Professor Carlson led a number of study-abroad programs, ranging from 1 to 5 months, for study in various countries around the world. He was the executive director of the Cannon Valley Elder Collegium and a regular volunteer for a number of community activities. He is a member of both the Methodist and Lutheran disaster-relief teams and a regular partic- ipant in the local Habitat for Humanity building team. He enjoys his grandchildren, wood- working, travel, reading, and being on assignment on the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Dr. Betty M. Thorne, author, researcher, and award-winning teacher, is professor of sta- tistics and director of undergraduate studies in the School of Business Administration at Stetson University in DeLand, Florida. Winner of Stetson University’s McEniry Award for Excellence in Teaching, the highest honor given to a Stetson University faculty member, Dr. Thorne is also the recipient of the Outstanding Teacher of the Year Award and Pro- fessor of the Year Award in the School of Business Administration at Stetson. Dr. Thorne teaches in Stetson University’s undergradaute business program in DeLand, Florida, and also in Stetson’s summer program in Innsbruck, Austria; Stetson University’s College of Law; Stetson University’s Executive MBA program; and Stetson University’s Executive Passport program. Dr. Thorne has received various teaching awards in the JD/MBA pro- gram at Stetson’s College of Law in Gulfport, Florida. She received her BS degree from Geneva College and MA and PhD degrees from Indiana University. She has co-au- thored statistics textbooks which have been translated into several languages and ad- opted by universities, nationally and internationally. She serves on key school and university committees. Dr. Thorne, whose research has been published in various ref- ereed journals, is a member of the American Statistical Association, the Decision Sci- ence Institute, Beta Alpha Psi, Beta Gamma Sigma, and the Academy of International Business. She and her husband, Jim, have four children. They travel extensively, attend theological conferences and seminars, participate in international organizations dedicated to helping disadvantaged children, and do missionary work in Romania.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

 

 

5

Preface 13

Data File Index 19

CHAPTER 1 Using Graphs to Describe Data 21

CHAPTER 2 Using Numerical Measures to Describe Data 59

CHAPTER 3 Elements of Chance: Probability Methods 93

CHAPTER 4 Discrete Probability Distributions 146

CHAPTER 5 Continuous Probability Distributions 197

CHAPTER 6 Distributions of Sample Statistics 244

CHAPTER 7 Confidence Interval Estimation: One Population 284

CHAPTER 8 Confidence Interval Estimation: Further Topics 328

CHAPTER 9 Hypothesis Tests of a Single Population 346

CHAPTER 10 Two Population Hypothesis Tests 385

CHAPTER 11 Two Variable Regression Analysis 417

CHAPTER 12 Multiple Variable Regression Analysis 473

CHAPTER 13 Additional Topics in Regression Analysis 551

CHAPTER 14 Introduction to Nonparametric Statistics 602

CHAPTER 15 Analysis of Variance 645

CHAPTER 16 Forecasting with Time-Series Models 684

CHAPTER 17 Sampling: Stratified, Cluster, and Other Sampling Methods 716 Appendix Tables 738

Index 783

BRIEF CONTENTS

 

 

This page intentionally left blank

 

 

7

Preface 13 Data File Index 19

CHAPTER 1 Using Graphs to Describe Data 21 1.1 Decision Making in an Uncertain Environment 22 Random and Systematic Sampling 22 Sampling and Nonsampling Errors 24

1.2 Classification of Variables 25 Categorical and Numerical Variables 25 Measurement Levels 26

1.3 Graphs to Describe Categorical Variables 28 Tables and Charts 28 Cross Tables 29 Pie Charts 31 Pareto Diagrams 32

1.4 Graphs to Describe Time-Series Data 35 1.5 Graphs to Describe Numerical Variables 40 Frequency Distributions 40 Histograms and Ogives 44 Shape of a Distribution 44 Stem-and-Leaf Displays 46 Scatter Plots 47

1.6 Data Presentation Errors 51 Misleading Histograms 51 Misleading Time-Series Plots 53

CHAPTER 2 Using Numerical Measures to Describe Data 59 2.1 Measures of Central Tendency and Location 59 Mean, Median, and Mode 60 Shape of a Distribution 62 Geometric Mean 63 Percentiles and Quartiles 64

2.2 Measures of Variability 68 Range and Interquartile Range 69 Box-and-Whisker Plots 69 Variance and Standard Deviation 71 Coefficient of Variation 75 Chebyshev’s Theorem and the Empirical Rule 75 z-Score 77

2.3 Weighted Mean and Measures of Grouped Data 80 2.4 Measures of Relationships Between Variables 84 Case Study: Mortgage Portfolio 91

CONTENTS

 

 

8 Contents

CHAPTER 3 Elements of Chance: Probability Methods 93 3.1 Random Experiment, Outcomes, and Events 94 3.2 Probability and Its Postulates 101 Classical Probability 101 Permutations and Combinations 102 Relative Frequency 106 Subjective Probability 107

3.3 Probability Rules 111 Conditional Probability 113 Statistical Independence 116

3.4 Bivariate Probabilities 122 Odds 126 Overinvolvement Ratios 126

3.5 Bayes’ Theorem 132 Subjective Probabilities in Management Decision Making 138

CHAPTER 4 Discrete Probability Distributions 146 4.1 Random Variables 147 4.2 Probability Distributions for Discrete Random Variables 148 4.3 Properties of Discrete Random Variables 152 Expected Value of a Discrete Random Variable 152 Variance of a Discrete Random Variable 153 Mean and Variance of Linear Functions of a Random Variable 155

4.4 Binomial Distribution 159 Developing the Binomial Distribution 160

4.5 Poisson Distribution 167 Poisson Approximation to the Binomial Distribution 171 Comparison of the Poisson and Binomial Distributions 172

4.6 Hypergeometric Distribution 173 4.7 Jointly Distributed Discrete Random Variables 176 Conditional Mean and Variance 180 Computer Applications 180 Linear Functions of Random Variables 180 Covariance 181 Correlation 182 Portfolio Analysis 186

CHAPTER 5 Continuous Probability Distributions 197 5.1 Continuous Random Variables 198 The Uniform Distribution 201

5.2 Expectations for Continuous Random Variables 203 5.3 The Normal Distribution 206 Normal Probability Plots 215

5.4 Normal Distribution Approximation for Binomial Distribution 219 Proportion Random Variable 223

5.5 The Exponential Distribution 225 5.6 Jointly Distributed Continuous Random Variables 228 Linear Combinations of Random Variables 232 Financial Investment Portfolios 232 Cautions Concerning Finance Models 236

 

 

Contents 9

CHAPTER 6 Distributions of Sample Statistics 244 6.1 Sampling from a Population 245 Development of a Sampling Distribution 246

6.2 Sampling Distributions of Sample Means 249 Central Limit Theorem 254 Monte Carlo Simulations: Central Limit Theorem 254 Acceptance Intervals 260

6.3 Sampling Distributions of Sample Proportions 265 6.4 Sampling Distributions of Sample Variances 270

CHAPTER 7 Confidence Interval Estimation: One Population 284 7.1 Properties of Point Estimators 285 Unbiased 286 Most Efficient 287

7.2 Confidence Interval Estimation for the Mean of a Normal Distribution: Population Variance Known 291

Intervals Based on the Normal Distribution 292 Reducing Margin of Error 295

7.3 Confidence Interval Estimation for the Mean of a Normal Distribution: Population Variance Unknown 297

Student’s t Distribution 297 Intervals Based on the Student’s t Distribution 299

7.4 Confidence Interval Estimation for Population Proportion (Large Samples) 303

7.5 Confidence Interval Estimation for the Variance of a Normal Distribution 306

7.6 Confidence Interval Estimation: Finite Populations 309 Population Mean and Population Total 309 Population Proportion 312

7.7 Sample-Size Determination: Large Populations 315 Mean of a Normally Distributed Population, Known Population

Variance 315 Population Proportion 317

7.8 Sample-Size Determination: Finite Populations 319 Sample Sizes for Simple Random Sampling: Estimation of the Population

Mean or Total 320 Sample Sizes for Simple Random Sampling: Estimation of Population

Proportion 321

CHAPTER 8 Confidence Interval Estimation: Further Topics 328 8.1 Confidence Interval Estimation of the Difference Between Two Normal Population

Means: Dependent Samples 329 8.2 Confidence Interval Estimation of the Difference Between Two Normal Population

Means: Independent Samples 333 Two Means, Independent Samples, and Known Population Variances 333 Two Means, Independent Samples, and Unknown Population Variances Assumed to

Be Equal 335 Two Means, Independent Samples, and Unknown Population Variances Not Assumed to

Be Equal 337

8.3 Confidence Interval Estimation of the Difference Between Two Population Proportions (Large Samples) 340

 

 

10 Contents

CHAPTER 9 Hypothesis Tests of a Single Population 346 9.1 Concepts of Hypothesis Testing 347 9.2 Tests of the Mean of a Normal Distribution: Population Variance Known 352 p-Value 354 Two-Sided Alternative Hypothesis 360

9.3 Tests of the Mean of a Normal Distribution: Population Variance Unknown 362 9.4 Tests of the Population Proportion (Large Samples) 366 9.5 Assessing the Power of a Test 368 Tests of the Mean of a Normal Distribution: Population Variance Known 369 Power of Population Proportion Tests (Large Samples) 371

9.6 Tests of the Variance of a Normal Distribution 375

CHAPTER 10 Two Population Hypothesis Tests 385 10.1 Tests of the Difference Between Two Normal Population Means:

Dependent Samples 387 Two Means, Matched Pairs 387

10.2 Tests of the Difference Between Two Normal Population Means: Independent Samples 391

Two Means, Independent Samples, Known Population Variances 391 Two Means, Independent Samples, Unknown Population Variances Assumed to Be Equal 393 Two Means, Independent Samples, Unknown Population Variances Not Assumed to Be Equal 396

10.3 Tests of the Difference Between Two Population Proportions (Large Samples) 399 10.4 Tests of the Equality of the Variances Between Two Normally Distributed

Populations 403 10.5 Some Comments on Hypothesis Testing 406

CHAPTER 11 Two Variable Regression Analysis 417 11.1 Overview of Linear Models 418 11.2 Linear Regression Model 421 11.3 Least Squares Coefficient Estimators 427 Computer Computation of Regression Coefficients 429

11.4 The Explanatory Power of a Linear Regression Equation 431 Coefficient of Determination, R2 433 11.5 Statistical Inference: Hypothesis Tests and Confidence Intervals 438 Hypothesis Test for Population Slope Coefficient Using the F Distribution 443

11.6 Prediction 446 11.7 Correlation Analysis 452 Hypothesis Test for Correlation 452

11.8 Beta Measure of Financial Risk 456 11.9 Graphical Analysis 458

CHAPTER 12 Multiple Variable Regression Analysis 473 12.1 The Multiple Regression Model 474 Model Specification 474 Model Objectives 476 Model Development 477 Three-Dimensional Graphing 480

 

 

Contents 11

12.2 Estimation of Coefficients 481 Least Squares Procedure 482

12.3 Explanatory Power of a Multiple Regression Equation 488 12.4 Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests for Individual Regression Coefficients 493 Confidence Intervals 495 Tests of Hypotheses 497

12.5 Tests on Regression Coefficients 505 Tests on All Coefficients 505 Test on a Subset of Regression Coefficients 506 Comparison of F and t Tests 508

12.6 Prediction 511 12.7 Transformations for Nonlinear Regression Models 514 Quadratic Transformations 515 Logarithmic Transformations 517

12.8 Dummy Variables for Regression Models 522 Differences in Slope 525

12.9 Multiple Regression Analysis Application Procedure 529 Model Specification 529 Multiple Regression 531 Effect of Dropping a Statistically Significant Variable 532 Analysis of Residuals 534

CHAPTER 13 Additional Topics in Regression Analysis 551 13.1 Model-Building Methodology 552 Model Specification 552 Coefficient Estimation 553 Model Verification 554 Model Interpretation and Inference 554

13.2 Dummy Variables and Experimental Design 554 Experimental Design Models 558 Public Sector Applications 563

13.3 Lagged Values of the Dependent Variable as Regressors 567 13.4 Specification Bias 571 13.5 Multicollinearity 574 13.6 Heteroscedasticity 577 13.7 Autocorrelated Errors 582 Estimation of Regressions with Autocorrelated Errors 586 Autocorrelated Errors in Models with Lagged Dependent Variables 590

CHAPTER 14 Introduction to Nonparametric Statistics 602 14.1 Goodness-of-Fit Tests: Specified Probabilities 603 14.2 Goodness-of-Fit Tests: Population Parameters Unknown 609 A Test for the Poisson Distribution 609 A Test for the Normal Distribution 611

14.3 Contingency Tables 614 14.4 Nonparametric Tests for Paired or Matched Samples 619 Sign Test for Paired or Matched Samples 619 Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test for Paired or Matched Samples 622 Normal Approximation to the Sign Test 623

 

 

12 Contents

Normal Approximation to the Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test 624 Sign Test for a Single Population Median 626

14.5 Nonparametric Tests for Independent Random Samples 628 Mann-Whitney U Test 628 Wilcoxon Rank Sum Test 631

14.6 Spearman Rank Correlation 634 14.7 A Nonparametric Test for Randomness 636 Runs Test: Small Sample Size 636 Runs Test: Large Sample Size 638

CHAPTER 15 Analysis of Variance 645 15.1 Comparison of Several Population Means 645 15.2 One-Way Analysis of Variance 647 Multiple Comparisons Between Subgroup Means 654 Population Model for One-Way Analysis of Variance 655

15.3 The Kruskal-Wallis Test 658 15.4 Two-Way Analysis of Variance: One Observation per Cell, Randomized Blocks 661 15.5 Two-Way Analysis of Variance: More Than One Observation per Cell 670

CHAPTER 16 Forecasting with Time-Series Models 684 16.1 Components of a Time Series 685 16.2 Moving Averages 689 Extraction of the Seasonal Component Through Moving Averages 692

16.3 Exponential Smoothing 697 The Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Model 700 Forecasting Seasonal Time Series 704

16.4 Autoregressive Models 708 16.5 Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models 713

CHAPTER17 Sampling: Stratified, Cluster, and Other Sampling Methods 716 17.1 Stratified Sampling 716 Analysis of Results from Stratified Random Sampling 718 Allocation of Sample Effort Among Strata 723 Determining Sample Sizes for Stratified Random Sampling with Specified

Degree of Precision 725

17.2 Other Sampling Methods 729 Cluster Sampling 729 Two-Phase Sampling 732 Nonprobabilistic Sampling Methods 734

APPENDIX TABLES 738

INDEX 783

 

 

13

INTENDED AUDIENCE

Statistics for Business and Economics, 8th edition, was written to meet the need for an in- troductory text that provides a strong introduction to business statistics, develops un- derstanding of concepts, and emphasizes problem solving using realistic examples that emphasize real data sets and computer based analysis. These examples emphasize busi- ness and economics examples for the following:

• MBA or undergraduate business programs that teach business statistics • Graduate and undergraduate economics programs • Executive MBA programs • Graduate courses for business statistics

SUBSTANCE

This book was written to provide a strong introductory understanding of applied statisti- cal procedures so that individuals can do solid statistical analysis in many business and economic situations. We have emphasized an understanding of the assumptions that are necessary for professional analysis. In particular we have greatly expanded the number of applications that utilize data from applied policy and research settings. Data and problem scenarios have been obtained from business analysts, major research organizations, and selected extractions from publicly available data sources. With modern computers it is easy to compute, from data, the output needed for many statistical procedures. Thus, it is tempting to merely apply simple “rules” using these outputs—an approach used in many textbooks. Our approach is to combine understanding with many examples and student exercises that show how understanding of methods and their assumptions lead to useful understanding of business and economic problems.

NEW TO THIS EDITION

The eighth edition of this book has been revised and updated to provide students with im- proved problem contexts for learning how statistical methods can improve their analysis and understanding of business and economics.

The objective of this revision is to provide a strong core textbook with new features and modifications that will provide an improved learning environment for students en- tering a rapidly changing technical work environment. This edition has been carefully revised to improve the clarity and completeness of explanations. This revision recognizes the globalization of statistical study and in particular the global market for this book.

1. Improvement in clarity and relevance of discussions of the core topics included in the book.

2. Addition of a number of large databases developed by public research agencies, busi- nesses, and databases from the authors’ own works.

PREFACE

 

 

14 Preface

3. Inclusion of a number of new exercises that introduce students to specific statistical questions that are part of research projects.

4. Addition of a number of case studies, with both large and small sample sizes. Stu- dents are provided the opportunity to extend their statistical understanding to the context of research and analysis conducted by professionals. These studies include data files obtained from on-going research studies, which reduce for the student, the extensive work load of data collection and refinement, thus providing an emphasis on question formulation, analysis, and reporting of results.

5. Careful revision of text and symbolic language to ensure consistent terms and defini- tions and to remove errors that accumulated from previous revisions and production problems.

6. Major revision of the discussion of Time Series both in terms of describing historical patterns and in the focus on identifying the underlying structure and introductory forecasting methods.

7. Integration of the text material, data sets, and exercises into new on-line applications including MyMathLab Global.

8. Expansion of descriptive statistics to include percentiles, z-scores, and alternative for- mulae to compute the sample variance and sample standard deviation.

9. Addition of a significant number of new examples based on real world data. 10. Greater emphasis on the assumptions being made when conducting various statisti-

cal procedures. 11. Reorganization of sampling concepts. 12. More detailed business-oriented examples and exercises incorporated in the analysis

of statistics. 13. Improved chapter introductions that include business examples discussed in the

chapter. 14. Good range of difficulty in the section ending exercises that permit the professor to

tailor the difficulty level to his or her course. 15. Improved suitability for both introductory and advanced statistics courses and by

both undergraduate and graduate students. 16. Decision Theory, which is covered in other business classes such as operations man-

agement or strategic management, has been moved to an online location for access by those who are interested (www.pearsonglobaleditions.com/newbold).

This edition devotes considerable effort to providing an understanding of statistical methods and their applications. We have avoided merely providing rules and canned computer routines for analyzing and solving statistical problems. This edition contains a complete discussion of methods and assumptions, including computational details ex- pressed in clear and complete formulas. Through examples and extended chapter appli- cations, we provide guidelines for interpreting results and explain how to determine if additional analysis is required. The development of the many procedures included under statistical inference and regression analysis are built on a strong development of probabil- ity and random variables, which are a foundation for the applications presented in this book. The foundation also includes a clear and complete discussion of descriptive statis- tics and graphical approaches. These provide important tools for exploring and describ- ing data that represent a process being studied.

Probability and random variables are presented with a number of important applica- tions, which are invaluable in management decision making. These include conditional probability and Bayesian applications that clarify decisions and show counterintuitive results in a number of decision situations. Linear combinations of random variables are developed in detail, with a number of applications of importance, including portfolio applications in finance.

The authors strongly believe that students learn best when they work with chal- lenging and relevant applications that apply the concepts presented by dedicated teachers and the textbook. Thus the textbook has always included a number of data

 

 

Preface 15

sets obtained from various applications in the public and private sectors. In the eighth edition we have added a number of large data sets obtained from major research proj- ects and other sources. These data sets are used in chapter examples, exercises, and case studies located at the end of analysis chapters. A number of exercises consider individual analyses that are typically part of larger research projects. With this struc- ture, students can deal with important detailed questions and can also work with case studies that require them to identify the detailed questions that are logically part of a larger research project. These large data sets can also be used by the teacher to develop additional research and case study projects that are custom designed for local course environments. The opportunity to custom design new research questions for students is a unique part of this textbook.

One of the large data sets is the HEI Cost Data Variable Subset. This data file was obtained from a major nutrition-research project conducted at the Economic Research Service (ERS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. These research projects provide the basis for developing government policy and informing citizens and food producers about ways to improve national nutrition and health. The original data were gathered in the Na- tional Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, which included in-depth interview mea- surements of diet, health, behavior, and economic status for a large probability sample of the U.S. population. Included in the data is the Healthy Eating Index (HEI), a measure of diet quality developed by ERS and computed for each individual in the survey. A number of other major data sets containing nutrition measures by country, automobile fuel con- sumption, health data, and more are described in detail at the end of the chapters where they are used in exercises and case studies. A complete list of the data files and where they are used is located at the end of this preface. Data files are also shown by chapter at the end of each chapter.

The book provides a complete and in-depth presentation of major applied topics. An initial read of the discussion and application examples enables a student to begin working on simple exercises, followed by challenging exercises that provide the op- portunity to learn by doing relevant analysis applications. Chapters also include sum- mary sections, which clearly present the key components of application tools. Many analysts and teachers have used this book as a reference for reviewing specific appli- cations. Once you have used this book to help learn statistical applications, you will also find it to be a useful resource as you use statistical analysis procedures in your future career.

A number of special applications of major procedures are included in various sec- tions. Clearly there are more than can be used in a single course. But careful selection of topics from the various chapters enables the teacher to design a course that provides for the specific needs of students in the local academic program. Special examples that can be left out or included provide a breadth of opportunities. The initial probability chapter, Chapter 3, provides topics such as decision trees, overinvolvement ratios, and expanded coverage of Bayesian applications, any of which might provide important material for local courses. Confidence interval and hypothesis tests include procedures for variances and for categorical and ordinal data. Random-variable chapters include linear combina- tion of correlated random variables with applications to financial portfolios. Regression applications include estimation of beta ratios in finance, dummy variables in experimen- tal design, nonlinear regression, and many more.

As indicated here, the book has the capability of being used in a variety of courses that provide applications for a variety of academic programs. The other benefit to the stu- dent is that this textbook can be an ideal resource for the student’s future professional career. The design of the book makes it possible for a student to come back to topics after several years and quickly renew his or her understanding. With all the additional special topics, that may not have been included in a first course, the book is a reference for learn- ing important new applications. And the presentation of those new applications follows a presentation style and uses understandings that are familiar. This reduces the time re- quired to master new application topics.

 

 

16 Preface

SUPPLEMENT PACKAGE

Student Resources Online Resources—These resources, which can be downloaded at no cost from www.pearsonglobaleditions.com/newbold, include the following:

• Data files—Excel data files that are used throughout the chapters. • PHStat2—The latest version of PHStat2, the Pearson statistical add-in for

Windows-based Excel 2003, 2007, and 2010. This version eliminates the use of the Excel Analysis ToolPak add-ins, thereby simplifying installation and setup.

• Answers to Selected Even-Numbered Exercises

MyMathLab Global provides students with direct access to the online resources as well as the following exclusive online features and tools:

• Interactive tutorial exercises—These are a comprehensive set of exercises writ- ten especially for use with this book that are algorithmically generated for un- limited practice and mastery. Most exercises are free-response exercises and provide guided solutions, sample problems, and learning aids for extra help at point of use.

• Personalized study plan—This plan indicates which topics have been mastered and creates direct links to tutorial exercises for topics that have not been mastered. MyMathLab Global manages the study plan, updating its content based on the results of future online assessments.

• Integration with Pearson eTexts—A resource for iPad users, who can download a free app at www.apple.com/ipad/apps-for-ipad/ and then sign in using their MyMathLab Global account to access a bookshelf of all their Pearson eTexts. The iPad app also allows access to the Do Homework, Take a Test, and Study Plan pages of their MyMathLab Global course.

Instructor Resources Instructor’s Resource Center—Reached through a link at www.pearsonglobaleditions .com/newbold, the Instructor’s Resource Center contains the electronic files for the complete Instructor’s Solutions Manual, the Test Item File, and PowerPoint lecture presentations:

• Register, Redeem, Log In—At www.pearsonglobaleditions.com/newbold, instruc- tors can access a variety of print, media, and presentation resources that are available with this book in downloadable digital format.

• Need Help?—Pearson Education’s dedicated technical support team is ready to assist instructors with questions about the media supplements that accompany this text. Visit http://247pearsoned.com for answers to frequently asked questions and toll-free user-support phone numbers. The supplements are available to adopting instructors. Detailed descriptions are provided at the Instructor’s Resource Center.

Instructor Solutions Manual—This manual includes worked-out solutions for end-of- section and end-of-chapter exercises and applications. Electronic solutions are provided at the Instructor’s Resource Center in Word format.

PowerPoint Lecture Slides—A set of chapter-by-chapter PowerPoint slides provides an instructor with individual lecture outlines to accompany the text. The slides include many of the figures and tables from the text. Instructors can use these lecture notes as is or can easily modify the notes to reflect specific presentation needs.

Test-Item File—The test-item file contains true/false, multiple-choice, and short-answer questions based on concepts and ideas developed in each chapter of the text.

TestGen Software—Pearson Education’s test-generating software is PC compatible and preloaded with all the Test-Item File questions. You can manually or randomly view test

 

 

Preface 17

questions and drag and drop them to create a test. You can add or modify test-bank ques- tions as needed.

MyMathLab Global is a powerful online homework, tutorial, and assessment system that accompanies Pearson Education statistics textbooks. With MyMathLab Global, instructors can create, edit, and assign online homework and tests using algorithmically generated exercises correlated at the objective level to the textbook. They can also create and assign their own online exercises and import TestGen tests for added flexibility. All student work is tracked in the online grade book. Students can take chapter tests and receive personal- ized study plans based on their test results. Each study plan diagnoses weaknesses and links the student directly to tutorial exercises for the objectives he or she needs to study and retest. Students can also access supplemental animations and video clips directly from selected exercises. MyMathLab Global is available to qualified adopters. For more information, visit www.mymathlab.com/global or contact your sales representative.

MyMathLab Global is a text-specific, easily customizable online course that integrates in- teractive multimedia instruction with textbook content. MyMathLab Global gives you the tools you need to deliver all or a portion of your course online, whether your students are in a lab setting or working from home. The latest version of MyMathLab Global of- fers a new, intuitive design that features more direct access to MyMathLab Global pages (Gradebook, Homework & Test Manager, Home Page Manager, etc.) and provides en- hanced functionality for communicating with students and customizing courses. Other key features include the following:

• Assessment Manager An easy-to-use assessment manager lets instructors create online homework, quizzes, and tests that are automatically graded and correlated directly to your textbook. Assignments can be created using a mix of questions from the exercise bank, instructor-created custom exercises, and/or TestGen test items.

• Grade Book Designed specifically for mathematics and statistics, the grade book au- tomatically tracks students’ results and gives you control over how to calculate final grades. You can also add offline (paper-and-pencil) grades to the grade book.

• Exercise Builder You can use the Exercise Builder to create static and algorithmic exercises for your online assignments. A library of sample exercises provides an easy starting point for creating questions, and you can also create questions from scratch.

• eText Full Integration Students who have the appropriate mobile devices can use your eText annotations and highlights for each course, and iPad users can download a free app that allows them access to the Do Homework, Take a Test, and Study Plan pages of their course.

• “Ask the Publisher” Link in “Ask My Instructor” E-mail You can easily notify the content team of any irregularities with specific questions by using the “Ask the Pub- lisher” functionality in the “Ask My Instructor” e-mails you receive from students.

• Tracking Time Spent on Media Because the latest version of MyMathLab Global requires students to explicitly click a “Submit” button after viewing the media for their assignments, you will be able to track how long students are spending on each media file.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

We appreciate the following colleagues who provided feedback about the book to guide our thoughts on this revision: Valerie R. Bencivenga, University of Texas at Austin; Burak Dolar, Augustana College; Zhimin Huang, Adelphi University; Stephen Lich-Tyler, University of North Carolina; Tung Liu, Ball State University; Leonard Presby, William Paterson University; Subarna K. Samanta, The College of New Jersey; Shane Sanders, Nicholls State University; Harold Schneider, Rider University; Sean Simpson, Westchester Community College.

 

 

18 Preface

The authors thank Dr. Andrea Carlson, Economic Research Service (ERS), U.S. Department of Agriculture, for her assistance in providing several major data files and for guidance in developing appropriate research questions for exercises and case studies. We also thank Paula Dutko and Empharim Leibtag for providing an example of complex statistical analysis in the public sector. We also recognize the excellent work by Annie Puciloski in finding our errors and improving the professional quality of this book.

We extend appreciation to two Stetson alumni, Richard Butcher (RELEVANT Magazine) and Lisbeth Mendez (mortgage company), for providing real data from their companies that we used for new examples, exercises, and case studies.

In addition, we express special thanks for continuing support from our families. Bill Carlson especially acknowledges his best friend and wife, Charlotte, their adult children, Andrea and Doug, and grandchildren, Ezra, Savannah, Helena, Anna, Eva Rose, and Emily. Betty Thorne extends special thanks to her best friend and husband, Jim, and to their family Jennie, Ann, Renee, Jon, Chris, Jon, Hannah, Leah, Christina, Jim, Wendy, Marius, Mihaela, Cezara, Anda, and Mara Iulia. In addition, Betty acknowledges (in memory) the support of her parents, Westley and Jennie Moore.

The authors acknowledge the strong foundation and tradition created by the origi- nal author, Paul Newbold. Paul understood the importance of rigorous statistical analy- sis and its foundations. He realized that there are some complex ideas that need to be developed, and he worked to provide clear explanations of difficult ideas. In addition, he realized that these ideas become useful only when used in realistic problem-solving situations. Thus, many examples and many applied student exercises were included in the early editions. We have worked to continue and expand this tradition in preparing a book that meets the needs of future business leaders in the information age.

Pearson wish to thank and acknowledge the following people for their work on the Global Edition:

Contributors

Tracey Holker, Department of Strategy and Applied Management, Coventry Business School, United Kingdom Stefania Paladini, Department of Strategy and Applied Management, Coventry Business School, United Kingdom Xavier Pierron, Department of Strategy and Applied Management, Coventry Business School, United Kingdom

Reviewers

Rosie Ching Ju Mae, School of Economics, Singapore Management University, Singapore Patrick Kuok-Kun Chu, Department of Accounting and Information Management, FBA, University of Macau, China Mohamed Madi, Faculty of Business and Economics, United Arab Emirates University, United Arab Emirates

 

 

19

Acme LLC Earnings per Share—Exercise 16.9 Advertising Retail—Example 13.6, Exercise 13.38 Advertising Revenue—Exercise 11.62 Anscombe—Exercise 11.68 Apple Stock Prices—Exercise 1.70 Automobile Fuel Consumption—Chapter 12

Case Study

Beef Veal Consumption—Exercises 13.63–13.65 Benefits Research—Example 12.60 Bigfish—Exercise 9.68 Births Australia—Exercise 13.17 Bishop—Exercise 1.43 Boat Production—Example 12.12 Bottles—Exercise 6.82 Britain Sick Leave—Exercise 13.56 Broccoli—Example 9.4 Browser Wars—Example 1.3, Exercises 1.19, 1.25

Citydatr—Examples 12.7, 12.8, 12.9, Exercises 1.46, 11.84, 12.31, 12.100, 12.103, 12.111, 13.22, 13.60

Closing Stock Prices—Example 14.5 Completion Times—Example 1.9, Exercises 1.7, 2.23,

2.34, 2.53, 13.6 Cotton—Chapter 12 Case Study Crime Study—Exercise 11.69 Currency-Exchange Rates—Example 1.6,

Exercise 1.24

Developing Country—Exercise 12.82 Dow Jones—Exercises 11.23, 11.29, 11.37, 11.51, 11.60

Earnings per Share—Exercises 1.29, 16.2, 16.7, 16.14, 16.24, 16.27

East Anglica Realty Ltd—Exercise 13.29 Economic Activity—Exercises 11.36, 11.52, 11.53, 11.85,

12.81, 12.104, 13.28 Exchange Rate—Exercises 1.49, 14.48

Fargo Electronics Earnings—Exercise 16.3 Fargo Electronics Sales—Exercise 16.4 Finstad and Lie Study—Exercise 1.17 Florin—Exercises 1.68, 2.25

Food Nutrition Atlas—Exercises 9.66, 9.67, 9.72, 9.73, 10.33, 10.34, 10.42, 10.43, 10.46, 11.92–11.96

Food Prices—Exercise 16.20

Gender and Salary—Examples 12.13, 12.14 German Import—Exercises 12.61 German Income—Exercises 13.53 Gilotti’s Pizzeria—Examples 2.8–2.10, Exercise 2.46 Gold Price—Exercises 1.27, 16.5, 16.12 Grade Point Averages—Examples 1.10, 2.3,

Exercises 1.73, 2.9 Granola—Exercise 6.84

Health Care Cost Analysis—Exercises 13.66–13.68 HEI Cost Data Variable Subset—Examples 1.1, 1.2,

2.7, 7.5, Exercises 1.8, 1.18, 7.23, 8.34, 8.35, 9.74– 9.78, 10.51–10.58, 11.97–11.101, 12.114–12.117, 14.17, Chapter 13 Case Study

Hourly Earnings—Exercises 16.19, 16.31 Hours—Example 14.13 House Selling Price—Exercises 10.4, 12.110 Housing Starts—Exercises 1.28, 16.1, 16.6, 16.13, 16.26

Improve Your Score—Example 8.2 Income—Example 14.12 Income Canada—Exercise 13.16 Income Clusters—Example 17.5 Indonesia Revenue—Exercise 13.52 Industrial Production Canada—Exercise 16.18 Insurance—Example 1.4 Inventory Sales—Exercises 1.50, 14.49, 16.11

Japan Imports—Exercise 13.54

Macro2009—Examples 1.5, 1.7, Exercise 1.22, Macro2010—Example 13.8, Exercises 11.86, 12.105,

13.58, 13.61, 13.62, 16.40 – 16.43 Market—Exercise 13.5 Mendez Mortgage—Chapter 2 Case Study, Exercises

7.5, 7.35, 7.36 Metals—Exercise 13.59 Money UK—Exercises 13.14, 13.31, 13.35 Motors—Exercises 12.13, 12.14, 12.48, 13.21

DATA FILE INDEX

 

 

20 Data File Index

New York Stock Exchange Gains and Losses— Exercises 11.24, 11.30, 11.38, 11.46

Ole—Exercise 10.48

Pension Funds—Exercise 13.15 Power Demand—Exercise 12.12 Private Colleges—Exercises 11.87–11.91, 12.112, 12.113 Production Cost—Example 12.11 Product Sales—Exercises 16.37, 16.39 Profit Margins—Exercise 16.21

Quarterly Earnings—Exercises 16.22, 16.36, 16.38 Quarterly Sales—Exercise 16.23

Rates—Exercise 2.24 RELEVANT Magazine—Examples 1.8, 2.19,

Exercises 1.71, 14.51 Retail Sales—Examples 11.2, 11.3, 13.13 Return on Stock Price, 60 months—Examples 5.17,

11.5, Exercises 5.104, 5.106, 11.63 – 11.67 Returns—Exercise 1.38 Rising Hills—Example 11.1

Salary Study—Exercise 12.107 Salorg—Exercise 12.72 SAT Math—Example 1.14 Savings and Loan—Examples 12.3, 12.10,

Example 13.7 Shares Traded—Example 14.16 Shiller House Price Cost—Example 16.2,

Exercise 12.109

Shopping Times—Example 2.6, Exercises 1.72, 2.54 Snappy Lawn Care—Exercises 1.66, 2.41, 2.45 Staten—Exercise 12.106 Stock Market Index—Exercise 14.50 Stock Price File—Exercises 5.101–5.105 Stordata—Exercise 1.45 Storet—Exercise 10.47 Student Evaluation—Exercise11.61 Student GPA—Exercises 2.48, 11.81, 12.99, 12.108 Student Pair—Exercises 8.32, 10.5 Student Performance—Exercise 12.71 Study—Exercises 2.10, 7.86 Sugar—Exercise 7.24 Sugar Coated Wheat—Exercises 6.83, 8.14 Sun—Exercises 1.39, 2.11

Teacher Rating—Exercise 12.92 Tennis—Exercise 1.15 Thailand Consumption—Exercises 13.18, 13.36 TOC—Exercise 7.45 Trading Volume—Exercise 16.25 Trucks—Example 7.4 Turkey Feeding—Examples 10.1, 10.4

Vehicle Travel State—Exercises 11.82, 11.83, 12.80, 12.101, 12.102

Water—Exercises 1.37, 2.22, 7.6, 7.103 Weekly Sales—Example 14.17

 

 

21

1.1 Decision Making in an Uncertain Environment Random and Systematic Sampling Sampling and Nonsampling Errors

1.2 Classification of Variables Categorical and Numerical Variables Measurement Levels

1.3 Graphs to Describe Categorical Variables Tables and Charts Cross Tables Pie Charts Pareto Diagrams

1.4 Graphs to Describe Time-Series Data 1.5 Graphs to Describe Numerical Variables

Frequency Distributions Histograms and Ogives Shape of a Distribution Stem-and-Leaf Displays Scatter Plots

1.6 Data Presentation Errors Misleading Histograms Misleading Time-Series Plots

1 C H A P T E R

Using Graphs to Describe Data

C H

A P

TE R

O U

TL IN

E

Introduction

What are the projected sales of a new product? Will the cost of Google shares continue to increase? Who will win the next presidential election? How sat- isfied were you with your last purchase at Starbucks, Best Buy, or Sports Authority? If you were hired by the National Nutrition Council of the United States, how would you determine if the Council’s guidelines on consumption of fruit, vegetables, snack foods, and soft drinks are being met? Do people who are physically active have healthier diets than people who are not physi- cally active? What factors (perhaps disposable income or federal funds) are significant in forecasting the aggregate consumption of durable goods? What effect will a 2% increase in interest rates have on residential investment? Do

 

 

22 Chapter 1 Using Graphs to Describe Data

credit scores, current balance, or outstanding maintenance balance con- tribute to an increase in the percentage of a mortgage company’s delin- quent accounts increasing? Answers to questions such as these come from an understanding of statistics, fluctuations in the market, consumer preferences, trends, and so on.

Statistics are used to predict or forecast sales of a new product, con- struction costs, customer-satisfaction levels, the weather, election results, university enrollment figures, grade point averages, interest rates, currency- exchange rates, and many other variables that affect our daily lives. We need to absorb and interpret substantial amounts of data. Governments, businesses, and scientific researchers spend billions of dollars collecting data. But once data are collected, what do we do with them? How do data impact decision making?

In our study of statistics we learn many tools to help us process, sum- marize, analyze, and interpret data for the purpose of making better deci- sions in an uncertain environment. Basically, an understanding of statistics will permit us to make sense of all the data.

In this chapter we introduce tables and graphs that help us gain a bet- ter understanding of data and that provide visual support for improved de- cision making. Reports are enhanced by the inclusion of appropriate tables and graphs, such as frequency distributions, bar charts, pie charts, Pa- reto diagrams, line charts, histograms, stem-and-leaf displays, or ogives. Visualization of data is important. We should always ask the following questions: What does the graph suggest about the data? What is it that we see?

1.1 DECISION MAKING IN AN UNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENT

Decisions are often made based on limited information. Accountants may need to select a portion of records for auditing purposes. Financial investors need to understand the market’s fluctuations, and they need to choose between various portfolio investments. Managers may use surveys to find out if customers are satisfied with their company’s products or services. Perhaps a marketing executive wants information concerning customers’ taste preferences, their shopping habits, or the demographics of Internet shoppers. An investor does not know with certainty whether financial markets will be buoyant, steady, or depressed. Nevertheless, the investor must decide how to balance a portfolio among stocks, bonds, and money market instruments while future market movements are unknown.

For each of these situations, we must carefully define the problem, determine what data are needed, collect the data, and use statistics to summarize the data and make infer- ences and decisions based on the data obtained. Statistical thinking is essential from initial problem definition to final decision, which may lead to reduced costs, increased profits, improved processes, and increased customer satisfaction.

Random and Systematic Sampling

Before bringing a new product to market, a manufacturer wants to arrive at some assess- ment of the likely level of demand and may undertake a market research survey. The manufacturer is, in fact, interested in all potential buyers (the population). However, populations are often so large that they are unwieldy to analyze; collecting complete in- formation for a population could be impossible or prohibitively expensive. Even in cir- cumstances where sufficient resources seem to be available, time constraints make the examination of a subset (sample) necessary.

 

 

1.1 Decision Making in an Uncertain Environment 23

Examples of populations include the following:

• All potential buyers of a new product • All stocks traded on the NYSE Euronext • All registered voters in a particular city or country • All accounts receivable for a corporation

Our eventual aim is to make statements based on sample data that have some valid- ity about the population at large. We need a sample, then, that is representative of the population. How can we achieve that? One important principle that we must follow in the sample selection process is randomness.

Population and Sample A population is the complete set of all items that interest an investigator. Population size, N, can be very large or even infinite. A sample is an observed subset (or portion) of a population with sample size given by n.

Random Sampling Simple random sampling is a procedure used to select a sample of n objects from a population in such a way that each member of the population is chosen strictly by chance, the selection of one member does not influence the selec- tion of any other member, each member of the population is equally likely to be chosen, and every possible sample of a given size, n, has the same chance of selection. This method is so common that the adjective simple is generally dropped, and the resulting sample is called a random sample.

Another sampling procedure is systematic sampling (stratified sampling and cluster sampling are discussed in Chapter 17).

Systematic Sampling Suppose that the population list is arranged in some fashion unconnected with the subject of interest. Systematic sampling involves the selection of every j th item in the population, where j is the ratio of the population size N to the desired sample size, n; that is, j = N>n. Randomly select a number from 1 to j to obtain the first item to be included in your systematic sample.

Suppose that a sample size of 100 is desired and that the population consists of 5,000 names in alphabetical order. Then j = 50. Randomly select a number from 1 to 50. If your number is 20, select it and every 50th number, giving the systematic sample of elements numbered 20, 70, 120, 170, and so forth, until all 100 items are selected. A systematic sample is analyzed in the same fashion as a simple random sample on the grounds that, relative to the subject of inquiry, the population listing is already in random order. The danger is that there could be some subtle, unsuspected link between the ordering of the population and the subject under study. If this were so, bias would be induced if system- atic sampling was employed. Systematic samples provide a good representation of the population if there is no cyclical variation in the population.

 

 

24 Chapter 1 Using Graphs to Describe Data

Sampling and Nonsampling Errors

Suppose that we want to know the average age of registered voters in the United States. Clearly, the population size is so large that we might take only a random sample, perhaps 500 registered voters, and calculate their average age. Because this average is based on sample data, it is called a statistic. If we were able to calculate the average age of the entire population, then the resulting average would be called a parameter.

Parameter and Statistic A parameter is a numerical measure that describes a specific characteristic of a population. A statistic is a numerical measure that describes a specific characteristic of a sample.

Throughout this book we will study ways to make decisions about a population pa- rameter, based on a sample statistic. We must realize that some element of uncertainty will always remain, as we do not know the exact value of the parameter. That is, when a sample is taken from a population, the value of any population parameter will not be able to be known precisely. One source of error, called sampling error, results from the fact that infor- mation is available on only a subset of all the population members. In Chapters 6, 7, and 8 we develop statistical theory that allows us to characterize the nature of the sampling error and to make certain statements about population parameters.

In practical analyses there is the possibility of an error unconnected with the kind of sampling procedure used. Indeed, such errors could just as well arise if a complete census of the population were taken. These are referred to as nonsampling errors. Examples of nonsampling errors include the following:

1. The population actually sampled is not the relevant one. A celebrated instance of this sort occurred in 1936, when Literary Digest magazine confidently predicted that Alfred Landon would win the presidential election over Franklin Roosevelt. How- ever, Roosevelt won by a very comfortable margin. This erroneous forecast resulted from the fact that the members of the Digest’s sample had been taken from telephone directories and other listings, such as magazine subscription lists and automobile registrations. These sources considerably underrepresented the poor, who were pre- dominantly Democrats. To make an inference about a population (in this case the U.S. electorate), it is important to sample that population and not some subgroup of it, however convenient the latter course might appear to be.

2. Survey subjects may give inaccurate or dishonest answers. This could happen be- cause questions are phrased in a manner that is difficult to understand or in a way that appears to make a particular answer seem more palatable or more desirable. Also, many questions that one might want to ask are so sensitive that it would be foolhardy to expect uniformly honest responses. Suppose, for example, that a plant manager wants to assess the annual losses to the company caused by employee thefts. In principle, a random sample of employees could be selected and sample members asked, What have you stolen from this plant in the past 12 months? This is clearly not the most reliable means of obtaining the required information!

3. There may be no response to survey questions. Survey subjects may not respond at all, or they may not respond to certain questions. If this is substantial, it can induce additional sampling and nonsampling errors. The sampling error arises because the achieved sample size will be smaller than that intended. Nonsampling error possibly occurs because, in effect, the population being sampled is not the population of interest. The results obtained can be regarded as a random sample from the population that is willing to respond. These people may differ in impor- tant ways from the larger population. If this is so, a bias will be induced in the resulting estimates.

 

 

1.2 Classification of Variables 25

There is no general procedure for identifying and analyzing nonsampling errors. But nonsampling errors could be important. The investigator must take care in such matters as identifying the relevant population, designing the questionnaire, and dealing with non- response in order to minimize the significance of nonsampling errors. In the remainder of this book it is assumed that such care has been taken, and our discussion centers on the treatment of sampling errors.

To think statistically begins with problem definition: (1) What information is re- quired? (2) What is the relevant population? (3) How should sample members be selected? (4) How should information be obtained from the sample members? Next we will want to know how to use sample information to make decisions about our population of interest. Finally, we will want to know what conclusions can be drawn about the population.

After we identify and define a problem, we collect data produced by various pro- cesses according to a design, and then we analyze that data using one or more statistical procedures. From this analysis, we obtain information. Information is, in turn, converted into knowledge, using understanding based on specific experience, theory, literature, and additional statistical procedures. Both descriptive and inferential statistics are used to change data into knowledge that leads to better decision making. To do this, we use descriptive statistics and inferential statistics.

Descriptive and Inferential Statistics Descriptive statistics focus on graphical and numerical procedures that are used to summarize and process data. Inferential statistics focus on using the data to make predictions, forecasts, and estimates to make better decisions.

1.2 CLASSIFICATION OF VARIABLES

A variable is a specific characteristic (such as age or weight) of an individual or object. Variables can be classified in several ways. One method of classification refers to the type and amount of information contained in the data. Data are either categorical or numerical. Another method, introduced in 1946 by American psychologist Stanley Smith Stevens is to classify data by levels of measurement, giving either qualitative or quantitative vari- ables. Correctly classifying data is an important first step to selecting the correct statistical procedures needed to analyze and interpret data.

Categorical and Numerical Variables

Categorical variables produce responses that belong to groups or categories. For exam- ple, responses to yes>no questions are categorical. Are you a business major? and Do you own a car? are limited to yes or no answers. A health care insurance company may clas- sify incorrect claims according to the type of errors, such as procedural and diagnostic errors, patient information errors, and contractual errors. Other examples of categorical variables include questions on gender or marital status. Sometimes categorical variables include a range of choices, such as “strongly disagree” to “strongly agree.” For example, consider a faculty-evaluation form where students are to respond to statements such as the following: The instructor in this course was an effective teacher (1: strongly disagree; 2: slightly disagree; 3: neither agree nor disagree; 4: slightly agree; 5: strongly agree).

Numerical variables include both discrete and continuous variables. A discrete nu- merical variable may (but does not necessarily) have a finite number of values. However, the most common type of discrete numerical variable produces a response that comes from a counting process. Examples of discrete numerical variables include the number of students enrolled in a class, the number of university credits earned by a student at the end of a particular semester, and the number of Microsoft stocks in an investor’s portfolio.

 

 

26 Chapter 1 Using Graphs to Describe Data

A continuous numerical variable may take on any value within a given range of real numbers and usually arises from a measurement (not a counting) process. Someone might say that he is 6 feet (or 72 inches) tall, but his height could actually be 72.1 inches, 71.8 inches, or some other similar number, depending on the accuracy of the instrument used to measure height. Other examples of continuous numerical variables include the weight of a cereal box, the time to run a race, the distance between two cities, or the tem- perature. In each case the value could deviate within a certain amount, depending on the precision of the measurement instrument used. We tend to truncate continuous variables in daily conversation and treat them as though they were the same as discrete variables without even giving it a second thought.

Measurement Levels

We can also describe data as either qualitative or quantitative. With qualitative data there is no measurable meaning to the “difference” in numbers. For example, one basketball player is assigned the number 20 and another player has the number 10. We cannot conclude that the first player plays twice as well as the second player. However, with quantitative data there is a measurable meaning to the difference in numbers. When one student scores 90 on an exam and another student scores 45, the difference is measurable and meaningful.

Qualitative data include nominal and ordinal levels of measurement. Quantitative data include interval and ratio levels of measurement.

Nominal and ordinal levels of measurement refer to data obtained from categorical questions. Responses to questions on gender, country of citizenship, political affiliation, and ownership of a mobile phone are nominal. Nominal data are considered the lowest or weakest type of data, since numerical identification is chosen strictly for convenience and does not imply ranking of responses.

The values of nominal variables are words that describe the categories or classes of responses. The values of the gender variable are male and female; the values of Do you own a car? are yes and no. We arbitrarily assign a code or number to each response. How- ever, this number has no meaning other than for categorizing. For example, we could code gender responses or yes>no responses as follows:

1 = Male; 2 = Female 1 = Yes; 2 = No

Ordinal data indicate the rank ordering of items, and similar to nominal data the val- ues are words that describe responses. Some examples of ordinal data and possible codes are as follows:

1. Product quality rating (1: poor; 2: average; 3: good) 2. Satisfaction rating with your current Internet provider (1: very dissatisfied; 2: moder-

ately dissatisfied; 3: no opinion; 4: moderately satisfied; 5: very satisfied) 3. Consumer preference among three different types of soft drink (1: most preferred;

2: second choice; 3: third choice)

In these examples the responses are ordinal, or put into a rank order, but there is no measurable meaning to the “difference” between responses. That is, the difference be- tween your first and second choices may not be the same as the difference between your second and third choices.

Interval and ratio levels of measurement refer to data obtained from numerical vari- ables, and meaning is given to the difference between measurements. An interval scale in- dicates rank and distance from an arbitrary zero measured in unit intervals. That is, data are provided relative to an arbitrarily determined benchmark. Temperature is a classic example of this level of measurement, with arbitrarily determined benchmarks generally based on either Fahrenheit or Celsius degrees. Suppose that it is 80°F in Orlando, Florida, and only 20°F in St. Paul, Minnesota. We can conclude that the difference in temperature is 60°, but we cannot say that it is four times as warm in Orlando as it is in St. Paul. The year is another example of an interval level of measurement, with benchmarks based most commonly on the Gregorian calendar.

 

 

Exercises 27

Ratio data indicate both rank and distance from a natural zero, with ratios of two measures having meaning. A person who weighs 200 pounds is twice the weight of a person who weighs 100 pounds; a person who is 40 years old is twice the age of someone who is 20 years old.

After collecting data, we first need to classify responses as categorical or numerical or by measurement scale. Next, we assign an arbitrary ID or code number to each response. Some graphs are appropriate for categorical variables, and others are used for numerical variables.

Note that data files usually contain “missing values.” For example, respondents to a questionnaire may choose not to answer certain questions about gender, age, income, or some other sensitive topic. Missing values require a special code in the data entry stage. Unless missing values are properly handled, it is possible to obtain erroneous output. Statistical software packages handle missing values in different ways.

EXERCISES

Visit www.mymathlab.com/global or www.pearsonglobal editions.com/newbold to access the data files.

Basic Exercises 1.1 A mortgage company randomly samples accounts of

their time-share customers. State whether each of the following variables is categorical or numerical. If cat- egorical, give the level of measurement. If numerical, is it discrete or continuous? a. The original purchase price of a customer’s

time-share unit b. The state (or country) of residence of a time-share

owner c. A time-share owner’s satisfaction level with

the maintenance of the unit purchased (1: very dissatisfied to 5: very satisfied)

d. The number of times a customer’s payment was late

1.2 Visitors to a supermarket in Singapore were asked to complete a customer service survey. Are the answers to the following survey questions categorical or numerical? If an answer is categorical, give the level of measurement. If an answer is numerical, is it discrete or continuous?

a. Have you visited this store before? b. How would you rate the level of customer service

you received today on a scale from 1 (very poor) to 5 (very good)?

c. How much money did you spend in the store today?

1.3 A questionnaire was distributed at a large university to find out the level of student satisfaction with various ac- tivities and services. For example, concerning parking availability, students were asked to indicate their level of satisfaction on a scale from 1 (very dissatisfied) to 5 (very satisfied). Is a student’s response to this question numer- ical or categorical? If numerical, is it discrete or continu- ous? If categorical, give the level of measurement.

1.4 Faculty at one university were asked a series of questions in a recent survey. State the type of data for each question.

a. Indicate your level of satisfaction with your teach- ing load (very satisfied, moderately satisfied, neu- tral, moderately dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied).

b. How many of your research articles were pub- lished in refereed journals during the last 5 years?

c. Did you attend the last university faculty meeting? d. Do you think that the teaching evaluation process

needs to be revised?

1.5 A number of questions were posed to a random sam- ple of visitors to a London tourist information center. For each question below, describe the type of data obtained.

a. Are you staying overnight in London? b. How many times have you visited London

previously? c. Which of the following attractions have you visited?

Tower of London Buckingham Palace Big Ben Covent Garden Westminster Abbey

d. How likely are you to visit London again in the next 12 months: (1) unlikely, (2) likely, (3) very likely?

1.6 Residents in one housing development were asked a series of questions by their homeowners’ association. Identify the type of data for each question.

a. Did you play golf during the last month on the de- velopment’s new golf course?

b. How many times have you eaten at the country club restaurant during the last month?

c. Do you own a camper? d. Rate the new security system for the development

(very good, good, poor, or very poor).

Application Exercises 1.7 The supervisor of a very large plant obtained

the times (in seconds) to complete a task for a random sample of employees. This information and other data about the employees are stored in the data file Completion Times.

a. Give an example of a categorical variable with ordinal responses.

b. Give an example of a categorical variable with nominal responses.

c. Give an example of a numerical variable.

 

 

28 Chapter 1 Using Graphs to Describe Data

1.3 GRAPHS TO DESCRIBE CATEGORICAL VARIABLES

We can describe categorical variables using frequency distribution tables and graphs such as bar charts, pie charts, and Pareto diagrams. These graphs are commonly used by managers and marketing researchers to describe data collected from surveys and questionnaires.

1.8 The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Center for Nutrition Policy and Promotion

(CNPP) developed and administered the Healthy Eat- ing Index–2005 to measure how well the population follows the recommendations of the 2005 Dietary Guidelines for Americans. The data are contained in the data file HEI Cost Data Variable Subset.

a. Give an example of a categorical variable with or- dinal responses.

b. Give an example of a categorical variable with nominal responses.

c. Give an example of a numerical variable with con- tinuous responses.

d. Give an example of a numerical variable with dis- crete responses.

Frequency Distribution A frequency distribution is a table used to organize data. The left column (called classes or groups) includes all possible responses on a variable being studied. The right column is a list of the frequencies, or number of observa- tions, for each class. A relative frequency distribution is obtained by dividing each frequency by the number of observations and multiplying the resulting proportion by 100%.

Tables and Charts

The classes that we use to construct frequency distribution tables of a categorical variable are simply the possible responses to the categorical variable. Bar charts and pie charts are commonly used to describe categorical data. If our intent is to draw attention to the frequency of each category, then we will most likely draw a bar chart. In a bar chart the height of a rectangle represents each frequency. There is no need for the bars to touch.

Example 1.1 Healthy Eating Index 2005 (HEI–2005): Activity Level (Frequency Distribution and Bar Chart) The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Center for Nutrition Policy and Promotion (CNPP) and the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), part of the Centers for Dis- ease Control and Prevention (CDC), conduct surveys to assess the health and nutrition of the U.S. population. The CNPP conducts the Healthy Eating Index (Guenther et al. 2007) and the NCHS conducts the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (CDC 2003–2004). The Healthy Eating Index (HEI) monitors the diet quality of the U.S. popu- lation, particularly how well it conforms to dietary guidance. The HEI–2005 measures how well the population follows the recommendations of the 2005 Dietary Guidelines for Americans (Guenther et al.). In particular it measures, on a 100-point scale, the adequacy of consumption of vegetables, fruits, grains, milk, meat and beans, and liquid oils.

The data file HEI Cost Data Variable Subset contains considerable information on randomly selected individuals who participated in two extended interviews and medical examinations. Data for the first interview are identified by daycode = 1; data for the second interview are identified by daycode = 2. Other variables in the data file are described in the data dictionary in the Chapter 10 Appendix.

 

 

1.3 Graphs to Describe Categorical Variables 29

One variable in the HEI–2005 study is a participant’s activity level coded as 1 = sedentary, 2 = active, and 3 = very active. Set up a frequency distribution and relative frequency distribution and construct a simple bar chart of activity level for the HEI–2005 participants during their first interview.

Solution Table 1.1 is a frequency distribution and a relative frequency distribution of the categorical variable “activity level.” Figure 1.1 is a bar chart of this data.

Table 1.1 HEI–2005 Participants’ Activity Level: First Interview

PARTICIPANTS PERCENT

Sedentary 2,183 48.9

Active 757 17.0

Very active 1,520 34.1

Total 4,460 100.0

Figure 1.1 HEI–2005 Participants’ Activity Level: First Interview (Simple Bar Chart)

Cross Tables

There are situations in which we need to describe relationships between categorical or ordinal variables. Market-research organizations describe attitudes toward products, measured on an ordinal scale, as a function of educational levels, social status measures, geographic areas, and other ordinal or categorical variables. Personnel departments study employee evaluation levels versus job classifications, educational levels, and other employee variables. Production analysts study relationships between departments or production lines and performance measures to determine reasons for product change, reasons for interruption of production, and quality of output. These situations are usu- ally described by cross tables and pictured by component or cluster bar charts. These bar charts are useful extensions of the simple bar chart in Figure 1.1.

0

500

1000

1500

2500

Sedentary

2183

Active

757

Very Active

1520

N u

m b

er o

f Pa

rt ic

ip an

ts

2000

Frequency

Cross Table A cross table, sometimes called a crosstab or a contingency table, lists the number of observations for every combination of values for two categorical or ordinal variables. The combination of all possible intervals for the two vari- ables defines the cells in a table. A cross table with r rows and c columns is referred to as an r * c cross table.

Example 1.2 illustrates the use of cross tables, component bar charts, and cluster bar charts to describe graphically two categorical variables from the HEI–2005 study.

 

 

30 Chapter 1 Using Graphs to Describe Data

Example 1.2 HEI–2005: Activity Level and Gender (Component and Cluster Bar Charts) Consider again the data in Table 1.1. Sometimes a comparison of one variable (activity level) with another variable (such as gender) is of interest. Construct component and cluster bar charts that compare activity level and gender. Use the data coded daycode = 1 in the data file HEI Cost Data Variable Subset.

Solution Table 1.2 is a cross table of activity levels (1 = sedentary; 2 = active; and 3 = very active) and gender (0 = male; 1 = female) obtained from the first interview for HEI–2005 participants.

Table 1.2 HEI–2005 Participants’ Activity Level (First Interview) by Gender (Component Bar Chart)

MALES FEMALES TOTAL

Sedentary 957 1,226 2,183

Active 340 417 757

Very active 842 678 1,520

Total 2,139 2,321 4,460

Figure 1.2 displays this information in a component or stacked bar chart. Figure 1.3 is a cluster, or side-by-side, bar chart of the same data.

Figure 1.2 HEI–2005 Participants’ Activity Level (First Interview) by Gender (Component Bar Chart)

1500

2500

Female

2000

1000

500

0 9

Male

Very Active, 842

Active, 340

Sedentary, 957

Very Active, 678

Active, 417

Sedentary, 1226

0

200

400

600

1000

1200

Male

Expansion And Secession

W. W. NORTON & COMPANY

Independent Publishers Since 1923

New York London

 

 

Americans assembled on the National Mall for the 1963 March on Washington.

 

 

We must disenthrall ourselves, and then we shall save our country.

—Abraham Lincoln, 1862

 

 

One

Two

Three

Four

Five

Six

Seven

Eight

CONTENTS

Introduction: The Question Stated

Part One

THE IDEA (1492–1799)

The Nature of the Past

The Rulers and the Ruled

Of Wars and Revolutions

The Constitution of a Nation

Part Two

THE PEOPLE (1800–1865)

A Democracy of Numbers

The Soul and the Machine

Of Ships and Shipwrecks

The Face of Battle

Part Three

THE STATE (1866–1945)

 

 

Nine

Ten

Eleven

Twelve

Thirteen

Fourteen

Fifteen

Sixteen

Of Citizens, Persons, and People

Efficiency and the Masses

A Constitution of the Air

The Brutality of Modernity

Part Four

THE MACHINE (1946–2016)

A World of Knowledge

Rights and Wrongs

Battle Lines

America, Disrupted

Epilogue: The Question Addressed

Acknowledgments

Notes

Illustration Credits

Index

 

 

Introduction

THE QUESTION STATED

THE COURSE OF HISTORY IS UNPREDICTABLE, AS IRREGULAR as the weather, as errant as affection, nations rising and falling by whim and chance, battered by violence, corrupted by greed, seized by tyrants, raided by rogues, addled by demagogues. This was all true until one day, Tuesday, October 30, 1787, when readers of a newspaper called the New-York Packet found on the front page an advertisement for an almanac that came bound with tables predicting the “Rising and Setting of the Sun,” the “Judgment of the Weather,” the “Length of Days and Nights,” and, as a bonus, something entirely new: the Constitution of the United States, forty-four hundred words that attempted to chart the motions of the branches of government and the separation of their powers as if these were matters of physics, like the transit of the sun and moon and the comings and goings of the tides.1 It was meant to mark the start of a new era, in which the course of history might be made predictable and a government established that would be ruled not by accident and force but by reason and choice. The origins of that idea, and its fate, are the story of American history.

The Constitution entailed both toil and argument. Knee-breeched, sweat-drenched delegates to the constitutional convention had met all summer in Philadelphia in a swelter of secrecy, the windows of their debating hall nailed shut against eavesdroppers. By the middle of September, they’d drafted a proposal written on four pages of parchment.

 

 

They sent that draft to printers who set the type of its soaring preamble with a giant W, as sharp as a bird’s claw:

We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.

As summer faded to fall, the free people of the United States, finding the Constitution folded into their newspapers and almanacs, were asked to decide whether or not to ratify it, even as they went about baling hay, milling corn, tanning leather, singing hymns, and letting out the seams on last year’s winter coats, for mothers and fathers grown fatter, and letting down the hems, for children grown taller.

They read this strange, intricate document, and they debated its plan. Some feared that the new system granted too much power to the federal government—to the president, or to Congress, or to the Supreme Court, or to all three. Many, like sixty-one-year-old George Mason of Virginia, a delegate who’d refused to sign it, wanted the Constitution to include a bill of rights. (“A bill might be prepared in a few hours,” Mason had begged at the convention, to no avail.)2 Others complained about this clause or that, down to commas. It was not an easy thing to read. A few suggested scrapping it and starting all over again. “Cannot the same power which called the late convention, call another?” one citizen wondered. “Are not the people still their own masters?”3

Much of what they said is a matter of record. “The infant periods of most nations are buried in silence, or veiled in fable,” James Madison once remarked.4 Not the United States. Its infancy is preserved, like baby teeth kept in a glass jar, in the four parchment sheets of the Constitution, in the pages of almanacs that chart the weather of a long-ago climate, and in hundreds of newspapers, where essays for and against the new system of government appeared alongside the shipping news, auction notices, and advertisements for the return of people who never were their own masters— women and children, slaves and servants—and who had run away, hoping

 

 

to ordain and establish, for themselves and their posterity, the blessings of liberty.

The season of ratification was an autumn of ordinary bustle and business. In that October 30, 1787, issue of the New-York Packet, a schoolmaster announced that he was offering lessons in “reading, writing, arithmetic, and merchants’ accounts” in rooms near city hall. The estate of Gearey, Champion, and Co., consisting chiefly of “a large and general Assortment of Drugs and Medicines,” was to be auctioned. Many-masted sailing ships from London and Liverpool and trim schooners from St. Croix, Baltimore, and Norfolk had dropped anchor in the depths of the harbor; sloops from Charleston and Savannah had tied their painters to the docks. A Scotsman offered a reward for the return of his stolen chestnut- colored mare, fourteen hands high, “lofty carriage, trots and canters very handsome.” A merchant with a warehouse on Peck Slip wanted readers to know that he had for sale dry codfish, a quantity of molasses, ground ginger in barrels, York rum, pickled codfish, writing paper, and men’s shoes. And the Columbian Almanack was for sale, with or without the Constitution as an appendix, at the printers’ shop, where New Yorkers might also inquire after two people, for a price:

TO BE SOLD. A LIKELY young NEGRO WENCH, 20 years of age, she is healthy and had the small pox, she has a young male child.

The mother was said to be “remarkably handy at housework”; her baby was “about 6 months old,” still nursing. Their names were not mentioned.5 They were not ruled by reason and choice. They were ruled by violence and force.

Between the everyday atrocity of slavery and the latest news from the apothecary there appeared on page 2 of that day’s New-York Packet an essay titled THE FEDERALIST No. 1. It had been written, anonymously, by a brash thirty-year-old lawyer named Alexander Hamilton. “You are called upon to deliberate on a new Constitution for the United States of America,” he told his readers. But more was at stake, too, he insisted; the wrong decision would result in “the general misfortune of mankind.” The

 

 

United States, he argued, was an experiment in the science of politics, marking a new era in the history of government:

It seems to have been reserved to the people of this country, by their conduct and example, to decide the important question, whether societies of men are really capable or not of establishing good government from reflection and choice, or whether they are forever destined to depend for their political constitutions on accident and force.6

This was the question of that autumn. And, in a way, it has been the question of every season since, the question of every rising and setting of the sun, on rainy days and snowy days, on clear days and cloudy days, at the clap of every thunderstorm. Can a political society really be governed by reflection and election, by reason and truth, rather than by accident and violence, by prejudice and deceit? Is there any arrangement of government —any constitution—by which it’s possible for a people to rule themselves, justly and fairly, and as equals, through the exercise of judgment and care? Or are their efforts, no matter their constitutions, fated to be corrupted, their judgment muddled by demagoguery, their reason abandoned for fury?

This question in every kind of weather is the question of American history. It is also the question of this book, an account of the origins, course, and consequences of the American experiment over more than four centuries. It is not a simple question. I once came across a book called The Constitution Made Easy.7 The Constitution cannot be made easy. It was never meant to be easy.

THE AMERICAN EXPERIMENT rests on three political ideas—“these truths,” Thomas Jefferson called them—political equality, natural rights, and the sovereignty of the people. “We hold these truths to be sacred & undeniable,” Jefferson wrote in 1776, in a draft of the Declaration of Independence:

that all men are created equal & independent, that from that equal creation they derive rights inherent & inalienable, among which are

 

 

the preservation of life, & liberty, & the pursuit of happiness; that to secure these ends, governments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed.

The roots of these ideas are as ancient as Aristotle and as old as Genesis and their branches spread as wide as the limbs of an oak. But they are this nation’s founding principles: it was by declaring them that the nation came to be. In the centuries since, these principles have been cherished, decried, and contested, fought for, fought over, and fought against. After Benjamin Franklin read Jefferson’s draft, he picked up his quill, scratched out the words “sacred & undeniable,” and suggested that “these truths” were, instead, “self-evident.” This was more than a quibble. Truths that are sacred and undeniable are God-given and divine, the stuff of religion. Truths that are self-evident are laws of nature, empirical and observable, the stuff of science. This divide has nearly rent the Republic apart.

Still, this divide is nearly always overstated and it’s easy to exaggerate the difference between Jefferson and Franklin, which, in those lines, came down, too, to style: Franklin’s revision is more forceful. The real dispute isn’t between Jefferson and Franklin, each attempting, in his way, to reconcile faith and reason, as many have tried both before and since. The real dispute is between “these truths” and the course of events: Does American history prove these truths, or does it belie them?

Before the experiment began, the men who wrote the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution made an extraordinarily careful study of history. They’d been studying history all their lives. Benjamin Franklin was eighty-one years old, hunched and crooked, when he signed the Constitution in 1787, with his gnarled and speckled hand. In 1731, when he was twenty-five, straight as a sapling, he’d written an essay called “Observations on Reading History,” on a “little Paper, accidentally preserv’d.”8 And he’d kept on reading history, and taking notes, asking himself, year after year: What does the past teach?

The United States rests on a dedication to equality, which is chiefly a moral idea, rooted in Christianity, but it rests, too, on a dedication to inquiry, fearless and unflinching. Its founders agreed with the Scottish philosopher and historian David Hume, who wrote, in 1748, that “Records of Wars, Intrigues, Factions, and Revolutions are so many Collections of

 

 

Experiments.”9 They believed that truth is to be found in ideas about morality but also in the study of history.

It has often been said, in the twenty-first century and in earlier centuries, too, that Americans lack a shared past and that, built on a cracked foundation, the Republic is crumbling.10 Part of this argument has to do with ancestry: Americans are descended from conquerors and from the conquered, from people held as slaves and from the people who held them, from the Union and from the Confederacy, from Protestants and from Jews, from Muslims and from Catholics, and from immigrants and from people who have fought to end immigration. Sometimes, in American history—in nearly all national histories—one person’s villain is another’s hero. But part of this argument has to do with ideology: the United States is founded on a set of ideas, but Americans have become so divided that they no longer agree, if they ever did, about what those ideas are, or were.

I wrote this book because writing an American history from beginning to end and across that divide hasn’t been attempted in a long time, and it’s important, and it seemed worth a try. One reason it’s important is that understanding history as a form of inquiry—not as something easy or comforting but as something demanding and exhausting—was central to the nation’s founding. This, too, was new. In the West, the oldest stories, the Iliad and the Odyssey, are odes and tales of wars and kings, of men and gods, sung and told. These stories were memorials, and so were the histories of antiquity: they were meant as monuments. “I have written my work, not as an essay which is to win the applause of the moment,” Thucydides wrote, “but as a possession for all time.” Herodotus believed that the purpose of writing history was “so that time not erase what man has brought into being.” A new kind of historical writing, less memorial and more unsettling, only first emerged in the fourteenth century. “History is a philosophical science,” the North African Muslim scholar Ibn Khaldun wrote in 1377, in the prologue to his history of the world, in which he defined history as the study “of the causes and origins of existing things.”11

Only by fits and starts did history become not merely a form of memory but also a form of investigation, to be disputed, like philosophy, its premises questioned, its evidence examined, its arguments countered. Early in the seventeenth century, Sir Walter Ralegh began writing his own History of the

 

 

World, from a prison in the Tower of London where he was allowed to keep a library of five hundred books. The past, Ralegh explained, “hath made us acquainted with our dead ancestors,” but it also casts light on the present, “by the comparison and application of other men’s fore-passed miseries with our own like errors and ill deservings.”12 To study the past is to unlock the prison of the present.

This new understanding of the past attempted to divide history from faith. The books of world religions—the Hebrew Bible, the New Testament, and the Quran—are pregnant with mysteries, truths known only by God, taken on faith. In the new history books, historians aimed to solve mysteries and to discover their own truths. The turn from reverence to inquiry, from mystery to history, was crucial to the founding of the United States. It didn’t require abdicating faith in the truths of revealed religion and it relieved no one of the obligation to judge right from wrong. But it did require subjecting the past to skepticism, to look to beginnings not to justify ends, but to question them—with evidence.

“I offer nothing more than simple facts, plain arguments, and common sense,” Thomas Paine, the spitfire son of an English grocer, wrote in Common Sense, in 1776. Kings have no right to reign, Paine argued, because, if we could trace hereditary monarchy back to its beginnings —“could we take off the dark covering of antiquity, and trace them to their first rise”—we’d find “the first of them nothing better than the principal ruffian of some restless gang.” James Madison explained Americans’ historical skepticism, this deep empiricism, this way: “Is it not the glory of the people of America, that, whilst they have paid a decent regard to the opinions of former times and other nations, they have not suffered a blind veneration for antiquity, for custom, or for names, to overrule the suggestions of their own good sense, the knowledge of their own situation, and the lessons of their own experience?”13 Evidence, for Madison, was everything.

“A new era for politics is struck,” Paine wrote, his pen aflame, and “a new method of thinking hath arisen.”14 Declaring independence was itself an argument about the relationship between the present and the past, an argument that required evidence of a very particular kind: historical evidence. That’s why most of the Declaration of Independence is a list of

 

 

historical claims. “To prove this,” Jefferson wrote, “let facts be submitted to a candid world.”

Facts, knowledge, experience, proof. These words come from the law. Around the seventeenth century, they moved into what was then called “natural history”: astronomy, physics, chemistry, geology. By the eighteenth century they were applied to history and to politics, too. These truths: this was the language of reason, of enlightenment, of inquiry, and of history. In 1787, then, when Alexander Hamilton asked “whether societies of men are really capable or not of establishing good government from reflection and choice, or whether they are forever destined to depend for their political constitutions on accident and force,” that was the kind of question a scientist asks before beginning an experiment. Time alone would tell. But time has passed. The beginning has come to an end. What, then, is the verdict of history?

This book attempts to answer that question by telling the story of American history, beginning in 1492, with Columbus’s voyage, which tied together continents, and ending in a world not merely tied together but tangled, knotted, and bound. It chronicles the settlement of American colonies; the nation’s founding and its expansion through migration, immigration, war, and invention; its descent into civil war; its entrance into wars in Europe; its rise as a world power and its role, after the Second World War, in the establishment of the modern liberal world order: the rule of law, individual rights, democratic government, open borders, and free markets. It recounts the nation’s confrontations with communism abroad and discrimination at home; its fractures and divisions, and the wars it has waged since 2001, when two airplanes crashed into the two towers of the World Trade Center eight blocks from the site of a long-gone shop where the printers of the New-York Packet had once offered for sale a young mother and her six-month old baby and the Columbian Almanack, bound with the Constitution, or without.

With this history, I’ve told a story; I’ve tried to tell it fairly. I have written a beginning and I have written an ending and I have tried to cross a divide, but I haven’t attempted to tell the whole story. No one could. Much is missing in these pages. In the 1950s, the historian Carl Degler explained the rule he’d used in deciding what to leave in and what to leave out of his own history of the United States, a lovely book called Out of Our Past.

 

 

“Readers should be warned that they will find nothing here on the Presidential administrations between 1868 and 1901, no mention of the American Indians or the settlement of the seventeenth-century colonies,” Degler advised. “The War of 1812 is touched on only in a footnote.”15 I, too, have had to skip over an awful lot. Some very important events haven’t even made it into the footnotes, which I’ve kept clipped and short, like a baby’s fingernails.

In deciding what to leave in and what to leave out, I’ve confined myself to what, in my view, a people constituted as a nation in the early twenty- first century need to know about their own past, mainly because this book is meant to double as an old-fashioned civics book, an explanation of the origins and ends of democratic institutions, from the town meeting to the party system, from the nominating convention to the secret ballot, from talk radio to Internet polls. This book is chiefly a political history. It pays very little attention to military and diplomatic history or to social and cultural history. But it does include episodes in the history of American law and religion, journalism and technology, chiefly because these are places where what is true, and what’s not, have sometimes gotten sorted out.

Aside from being a brief history of the United States and a civics primer, this book aims to be something else, too: it’s an explanation of the nature of the past. History isn’t only a subject; it’s also a method. My method is, generally, to let the dead speak for themselves. I’ve pressed their words between these pages, like flowers, for their beauty, or like insects, for their hideousness. The work of the historian is not the work of the critic or of the moralist; it is the work of the sleuth and the storyteller, the philosopher and the scientist, the keeper of tales, the sayer of sooth, the teller of truth.

What, then, of the American past? There is, to be sure, a great deal of anguish in American history and more hypocrisy. No nation and no people are relieved of these. But there is also, in the American past, an extraordinary amount of decency and hope, of prosperity and ambition, and much, especially, of invention and beauty. Some American history books fail to criticize the United States; others do nothing but. This book is neither kind. The truths on which the nation was founded are not mysteries, articles of faith, never to be questioned, as if the founding were an act of God, but

 

 

neither are they lies, all facts fictions, as if nothing can be known, in a world without truth. Between reverence and worship, on the one side, and irreverence and contempt, on the other, lies an uneasy path, away from false pieties and petty triumphs over people who lived and died and committed both their acts of courage and their sins and errors long before we committed ours. “We cannot hallow this ground,” Lincoln said at Gettysburg. We are obliged, instead, to walk this ground, dedicating ourselves to both the living and the dead.

A last word, then, about storytelling, and truth. “I have begun this letter five times and torn it up,” James Baldwin wrote, in a letter to his nephew begun in 1962. “I keep seeing your face, which is also the face of your father and my brother.” His brother was dead; he meant to tell his nephew about being a black man, about the struggle for equality, and about the towering importance and gripping urgency of studying the past and reckoning with origins. He went on,

I have known both of you all your lives, have carried your Daddy in my arms and on my shoulders, kissed and spanked him and watched him learn to walk. I don’t know if you’ve known anybody from that far back; if you’ve loved anybody that long, first as an infant, then as a child, then as a man, you gain a strange perspective on time and human pain and effort. Other people cannot see what I see whenever I look into your father’s face, for behind your father’s face as it is today are all those faces which were his.16

No one can know a nation that far back, from its infancy, with or without baby teeth kept in a jar. But studying history is like that, looking into one face and seeing, behind it, another, face after face after face. “Know whence you came,” Baldwin told his nephew.17 The past is an inheritance, a gift and a burden. It can’t be shirked. You carry it everywhere. There’s nothing for it but to get to know it.

 

 

THESE TRUTHS

 

 

 

John Durand painted the precocious six-year-old New Yorker Jane Beekman in 1767, holding a book and seized with inspiration.

 

 

Part One

THE IDEA

1492–1799

In the beginning, all the World was America.

—John Locke, SECOND TREATISE ON GOVERNMENT,

1689

 

 

One

THE NATURE OF THE PAST

“America” first appeared as the name of an undefined land mass on a map of the world made in 1507.

“WE SAW NAKED PEOPLE,” A BROAD-SHOULDERED SEA captain from Genoa wrote in his diary, nearing land after weeks of staring at nothing but blue-black sea. Or, at least, that’s what Christopher Columbus is thought to have written in his diary that day in October 1492, ink trailing across the page like the line left behind by a snail wandering across a stretch of sand. No one knows for sure what the sea captain wrote that day, because his diary is lost. In the 1530s, before it disappeared, parts of it were copied by a

 

 

frocked and tonsured Dominican friar named Bartolomé de Las Casas. The friar’s copy was lost, too, until about 1790, when an old sailor found it in the library of a Spanish duke. In 1894, the widow of another librarian sold to a duchess parchment scraps of what appeared to be Columbus’s original —it had his signature, and the year 1492 on the cover. After that, the widow disappeared, and, with her, whatever else may have been left of the original diary vanished.1

On an ink-splotched sketch of northwest Haiti, Columbus labeled “la española,” Hispaniola, “the little Spanish island.”

All of this is unfortunate; none of it is unusual. Most of what once existed is gone. Flesh decays, wood rots, walls fall, books burn. Nature takes one toll, malice another. History is the study of what remains, what’s left behind, which can be almost anything, so long as it survives the ravages of time and war: letters, diaries, DNA, gravestones, coins, television broadcasts, paintings, DVDs, viruses, abandoned Facebook pages, the transcripts of congressional hearings, the ruins of buildings. Some of these things are saved by chance or accident, like the one house that, as if by miracle, still stands after a hurricane razes a town. But most of what historians study survives because it was purposely kept—placed in a box and carried up to an attic, shelved in a library, stored in a museum, photographed or recorded, downloaded to a server—carefully preserved and

 

 

even catalogued. All of it, together, the accidental and the intentional, this archive of the past—remains, relics, a repository of knowledge, the evidence of what came before, this inheritance—is called the historical record, and it is maddeningly uneven, asymmetrical, and unfair.

Relying on so spotty a record requires caution. Still, even its absences speak. “We saw naked people,” Columbus wrote in his diary (at least, according to the notes taken by Las Casas). “They were a people very poor in everything,” the sea captain went on, describing the people he met on an island they called Haiti—“land of mountains”—but that Columbus called Hispaniola—“the little Spanish island”—because he thought it had no name. They lacked weapons, he reported; they lacked tools. He believed they lacked even a faith: “They appear to have no religion.” They lacked guile; they lacked suspicion. “I will take six of them from here to Your Highnesses,” he wrote, addressing the king and queen of Spain, “in order that they may learn to speak,” as if, impossibly, they had no language.2 Later, he admitted the truth: “None of us understands the words they say.”3

Two months after he reached Haiti, Columbus prepared to head back to Spain but, off the coast, his three-masted flagship ran aground. Before the ship sank, Columbus’s men salvaged the timbers to build a fort; the sunken wreckage has never been found, as lost to history as everything that the people of Haiti said the day a strange sea captain washed up on shore. On the voyage home, on a smaller ship, square-rigged and swift, Columbus wondered about all that he did not understand about the people he’d met, a people he called “Indians” because he believed he had sailed to the Indies. It occurred to him that it wasn’t that they didn’t have a religion or a language but that these things were, to him, mysteries that he could not penetrate, things beyond his comprehension. He needed help. In Barcelona, he hired Ramón Pané, a priest and scholar, to come along on his next voyage, to “discover and understand . . . the beliefs and idolatries of the Indians, and . . . how they worship their gods.”4

Pané sailed with Columbus in 1493. Arriving in Haiti, Pané met a man named Guatícabanú, who knew all of the languages spoken on the island, and who learned Pané’s language, Castilian, and taught him his own. Pané lived with the natives, the Taíno, for four years, and delivered to Columbus

 

 

his report, a manuscript he titled An Account of the Antiquities of the Indians. Not long afterward, it vanished.

The fates of old books are as different as the depths of the ocean. Before An Account of the Antiquities of the Indians disappeared, Columbus’s son Ferdinand, writing a biography of his father, copied it out, and even though Ferdinand Columbus’s book remained unpublished at his death in 1539, his copy of Pané’s extraordinary account had by then been copied by other scholars, including the learned and dogged Las Casas, a man who never left a page unturned. In 1570, a scholar in Venice was translating Pané’s Antiquities into Italian when he died in prison, suspected of being a spy for the French; nevertheless, his translation was published in 1571, with the result that the closest thing to the original of Pané’s account that survives is a poor Italian translation of words that had already been many times translated, from other tongues to Guatícabanú’s tongue, and from Guatícabanú’s tongue to Castilian and then, by Pané, from Castilian.5 And yet it remains a treasure.

“I wrote it down in haste and did not have sufficient paper,” Pané apologized. He’d collected the Taíno’s stories, though he’d found it difficult to make sense of them, since so many of the stories seemed, to him, to contradict one another. “Because they have neither writing nor letters,” Pané reported, “they cannot give a good account of how they have heard this from their ancestors, and therefore they do not all say the same thing.” The Taíno had no writing. But, contrary to Columbus’s initial impressions, they most certainly did have a religion. They called their god Yúcahu. “They believe that he is in heaven and is immortal, and that no one can see him, and that he has a mother,” Pané explained. “But he has no beginning.” Also, “They know likewise from whence they came, and where the sun and the moon had their beginning, and how the sea was made, and where the dead go.”6

People order their worlds with tales of their dead and of their gods and of the origins of their laws. The Taíno told Pané that their ancestors once lived in caves and would go out at night but, once, when some of them were late coming back, the Sun turned them into trees. Another time, a man named Yaya killed his son Yayael and put his bones in a gourd and hung it from his roof and when his wife took down the gourd and opened it the

 

 

bones had been changed into fish and the people ate the fish but when they tried to hang the gourd up again, it fell to the earth, and out spilled all the water that made the oceans.

The Taíno did not have writing but they did have government. “They have their laws gathered in ancient songs, by which they govern themselves,” Pané reported.7 They sang their laws, and they sang their history. “These songs remain in their memory rather than in books,” another Spanish historian observed, “and this way they recite the genealogies of the caciques, kings, and lords they have had, their deeds, and the bad or good times they had.”8

In those songs, they told their truths. They told of how the days and weeks and years after the broad-shouldered sea captain first spied their island were the worst of times. Their god, Yúcahu, had once foretold that they “would enjoy their dominion for but a brief time because a clothed people would come to their land who could overcome them and kill them.”9 This had come to pass. There were about three million people on that island, land of mountains, when Columbus landed; fifty years later, there were only five hundred; everyone else had died, their songs unsung.

I.

STORIES OF ORIGINS nearly always begin in darkness, earth and water and night, black as doom. The sun and the moon came from a cave, the Taíno told Pané, and the oceans spilled out of a gourd. The Iroquois, a people of the Great Lakes, say the world began with a woman who lived on the back of a turtle. The Akan of Ghana tell a story about a god who lived closer to the earth, low in the sky, until an old woman struck him with her pestle, and he flew away. “In the beginning, God created the heaven and the earth,” according to Genesis. “And the earth was without form, and void; and darkness was upon the face of the deep.”

Darkness was on the face of the deep in geological histories, too, whose evidence comes from rocks and bones. The universe was created about fourteen billion years ago, according to the traces left behind by meteors and the afterlives of stars, glowing and distant, blinking and dim. The earth

 

 

was formed about four billion years ago, according to the sand and rocks, sea floors and mountaintops. For a very long time, all the lands of the earth were glommed together until, about three hundred million years ago, those glommed-together lands began breaking up; parts broke off and began drifting away from one another, like the debris of a sinking ship.

Evidence of the long-ago past is elusive, but it survives in the unlikeliest of places, even in the nests of pack rats, mammals that crept up in North America sixty million years ago. Pack rats build nests out of sticks and stones and bones and urinate on them; the liquid hardens like amber, preserving pack rat nests as if pressed behind glass. A great many of the animals and plants that lived at the time of ancient pack rats later became extinct, lost forever, saved only in pack rat nests, where their preserved remains provide evidence not only of evolution but of the warming of the earth. A pack rat nest isn’t like the geological record; it’s more like an archive, a collection, gathered and kept, like a library of old books and long-forgotten manuscripts, a treasure, an account of the antiquities of the animals and plants.10

The fossil record is richer still. Charles Darwin called the record left by fossils “a history of the world imperfectly kept.” According to that record, Homo sapiens, modern humans, evolved about three hundred thousand years ago, in East Africa, near and around what is now Ethiopia. Over the next hundred and fifty thousand years, early humans spread into the Middle East, Asia, Australia, and Europe.11 Like pack rats, humans store and keep and save. The record of early humans, however imperfectly kept, includes not only fossils but also artifacts, things created by people (the word contains its own meaning—art + fact—an artifact is a fact made by art). Artifacts and the fossil record together tell the story of how, about twenty thousand years ago, humans migrated into the Americas from Asia when, for a while, the northwestern tip of North America and the northeastern tip of Asia were attached when a landmass between them rose above sea level, making it possible for humans and animals to walk between what is now Russia and Alaska, a distance of some six hundred miles, until the water rose again, and one half of the world was, once again, cut off from the other half.

 

 

In 1492, seventy-five million people lived in the Americas, north and south.12 The people of Cahokia, the biggest city in North America, on the Mississippi floodplains, had built giant plazas and earthen mounds, some bigger than the Egyptian pyramids. In about 1000 AD, before Cahokia was abandoned, more than ten thousand people lived there. The Aztecs, Incas, and Maya, vast and ancient civilizations, built monumental cities and kept careful records and calendars of exquisite accuracy. The Aztec city of Tenochtitlán, founded in 1325, had a population of at least a quarter-million people, making it one of the largest cities in the world. Outside of those places, most people in the Americas lived in smaller settlements and gathered and hunted for their food. A good number were farmers who grew squash and corn and beans, hunted and fished. They kept pigs and chickens but not bigger animals. They spoke hundreds of languages and practiced many different faiths. Most had no written form of language. They believed in many gods and in the divinity of animals and of the earth itself.13 The Taíno lived in villages of one or two thousand people, headed by a cacique. They fished and farmed. They warred with their neighbors. They decorated their bodies; they painted themselves red. They sang their laws.14 They knew where the dead went.

In 1492, about sixty million people lived in Europe, fifteen million fewer than lived in the Americas. They lived and were ruled in villages and towns, in cities and states, in kingdoms and empires. They built magnificent cities and castles, cathedrals and temples and mosques, libraries and universities. Most people farmed and worked on land surrounded by fences, raising crops and cattle and sheep and goats. “Be fruitful, and multiply, and replenish the earth, and subdue it,” God tells Adam and Eve in Genesis, “and have dominion over the fish of the sea, and over the fowl of the air, and over every living thing that moveth upon the earth.” They spoke and wrote dozens of languages. They recorded their religious tenets and stories on scrolls and in books of beauty and wonder. They were Catholic and Protestant, Jewish and Muslim; for long stretches of time, peoples of different faiths managed to get along and then, for other long stretches, they did not, as if they would cut out one another’s hearts. Their faith was their truth, the word of their God, revealed to their prophets, and, for Christians,

 

 

to the people, through the words spoken by Jesus—the good-spell, or “good news”—their Gospel, written down.

Before 1492, Europe suffered from scarcity and famine. After 1492, the vast wealth carried to Europe from the Americas and extracted by the forced labor of Africans granted governments new powers that contributed to the rise of nation-states.

A nation is a people who share a common ancestry. A state is a political community, governed by laws. A nation-state is a political community, governed by laws, that, at least theoretically, unites a people who share a common ancestry (one way nation-states form is by violently purging their populations of people with different ancestries). As nation-states emerged, they needed to explain themselves, which they did by telling stories about their origins, tying together ribbons of myths, as if everyone in the “English nation,” for instance, had the same ancestors, when, of course, they did not. Very often, histories of nation-states are little more than myths that hide the seams that stitch the nation to the state.15

The origins of the United States can be found in those seams. When the United States declared its independence in 1776, plainly, it was a state, but what made it a nation? The fiction that its people shared a common ancestry was absurd on its face; they came from all over, and, having waged a war against England, the very last thing they wanted to celebrate was their Englishness. In an attempt to solve this problem, the earliest historians of the United States decided to begin their accounts with Columbus’s voyage, stitching 1776 to 1492. George Bancroft published his History of the United States from the Discovery of the American Continent to the Present in 1834, when the nation was barely more than a half-century old, a fledgling, just hatched. By beginning with Columbus, Bancroft made the United States nearly three centuries older than it was, a many-feathered old bird. Bancroft wasn’t only a historian; he was also a politician: he served in the administrations of three U.S. presidents, including as secretary of war during the age of American expansion. He believed in manifest destiny, the idea that the United States was fated to cross the continent, from east to west. For Bancroft, the nation’s fate was all but sealed the day Columbus set sail. By giving Americans a more ancient past, he hoped to make America’s founding appear inevitable and its growth inexorable, God-

 

 

ordained. He also wanted to celebrate the United States, not as an offshoot of England, but instead as a pluralist and cosmopolitan nation, with ancestors all over the world. “France contributed to its independence,” he observed, “the origin of the language we speak carries us to India; our religion is from Palestine; of the hymns sung in our churches, some were first heard in Italy, some in the deserts of Arabia, some on the banks of the Euphrates; our arts come from Greece; our jurisprudence from Rome.”16

Yet the origins of the United States date to 1492 for another, more troubling reason: the nation’s founding truths were forged in a crucible of violence, the products of staggering cruelty, conquest and slaughter, the assassination of worlds. The history of the United States can be said to begin in 1492 because the idea of equality came out of a resolute rejection of the idea of inequality; a dedication to liberty emerged out of bitter protest against slavery; and the right to self-government was fought for, by sword and, still more fiercely, by pen. Against conquest, slaughter, and slavery came the urgent and abiding question, “By what right?”

To begin a history of the United States in 1492 is to take seriously and solemnly the idea of America itself as a beginning. Yet, so far from the nation’s founding having been inevitable, its expansion inexorable, the history of the United States, like all history, is a near chaos of contingencies and accidents, of wonders and horrors, unlikely, improbable, and astonishing.

To start with, weighing the evidence, it’s a little surprising that it was western Europeans in 1492, and not some other group of people, some other year, who crossed an ocean to discover a lost world. Making the journey required knowledge, capacity, and interest. The Maya, whose territory stretched from what is now Mexico to Costa Rica, knew enough astronomy to navigate across the ocean as early as AD 300. They did not, however, have seaworthy boats. The ancient Greeks had known a great deal about cartography: Claudius Ptolemy, an astronomer who lived in the second century, had devised a way to project the surface of the globe onto a flat surface with near-perfect proportions. But medieval Christians, having dismissed the writings of the ancient Greeks as pagan, had lost much of that knowledge. The Chinese had invented the compass in the eleventh century, and had excellent boats. Before his death in 1433, Zheng He, a Chinese

 

 

Muslim, had explored the coast of much of Asia and eastern Africa, leading two hundred ships and twenty-seven thousand sailors. But China was the richest country in the world, and by the late fifteenth century no longer allowed travel beyond the Indian Ocean, on the theory that the rest of the world was unworthy and uninteresting. West Africans navigated the coastline and rivers that led into a vast inland trade network, but prevailing winds and currents thwarted them from navigating north and they seldom ventured into the ocean. Muslims from North Africa and the Middle East, who had never cast aside the knowledge of antiquity and the calculations of Ptolemy, made accurate maps and built sturdy boats, but because they dominated trade in the Mediterranean Sea, as well as overland trade with Africa, for gold, and with Asia, for spices, they didn’t have much reason to venture farther.17

It was somewhat out of desperation, then, that the poorest and weakest Christian monarchs on the very western edge of Europe, fighting with Muslims, jealous of the Islamic world’s monopoly on trade, and keen to spread their religion, began looking for routes to Africa and Asia that wouldn’t require sailing across the Mediterranean. In the middle of the fifteenth century, Prince Henry of Portugal began sending ships to sail along the western coast of Africa. Building forts on the coast and founding colonies on islands, they began to trade with African merchants, buying and selling people, coin for flesh, a traffic in slaves.

Columbus, a citizen of the bustling Mediterranean port of Genoa, served as a sailor on Portuguese slave-trading ships beginning in 1482. In 1484, when he was about thirty-three years old, he presented to the king of Portugal a plan to travel to Asia by sailing west, across the ocean. The king assembled a panel of scholars to consider the proposal but, in the end, rejected it: Portugal was committed to its ventures in West Africa, and the king’s scholars saw that Columbus had greatly underestimated the distance he would have to travel. Better calculated was the voyage of Bartolomeu Dias, a Portuguese nobleman, who in 1487 rounded the southernmost tip of Africa, proving that it was possible to sail from the Atlantic to the Indian Ocean. Why sail west, across the Atlantic, when a different way to sail to the East had already been found?

 

 

Columbus next brought his proposal to the king and queen of Spain, who at first rejected it; they were busy waging wars of religion, purging their population of people who had different ancestors and different beliefs. Early in 1492, after the last Muslim city in Spain fell to the Spanish crown, Ferdinand and Isabella ordered that all Jews be expelled from their realm and, confident that their pitiless Inquisition had rid their kingdom of Muslims and Jews, heretics and pagans, they ordered Columbus to sail, to trade, and to spread the Christian faith: to conquer, and to chronicle, to say what was true, and to write it down: to keep a diary.

TO WRITE SOMETHING down doesn’t make it true. But the history of truth is lashed to the history of writing like a mast to a sail. Writing was invented in three different parts of the world at three different moments in time: about 3200 BCE in Mesopotamia, about 1100 BCE in China, and about AD 600 in Mesoamerica. In the history of the world, most of the people who have ever lived either did not know how to write or, if they did, left no writing behind, which is among the reasons why the historical record is so maddeningly unfair. To write something down is to make a fossil record of a mind. Stories are full of power and force; they seethe with meaning, with truths and lies, evasions and honesty. Speech often has far more weight and urgency than writing. But most words, once spoken, are forgotten, while writing lasts, a point observed early in the seventeenth century by an English vicar named Samuel Purchas. Purchas, who had never been more than two hundred miles from his vicarage, carefully studied the accounts of travelers, because he proposed to write a new history of the world.18 Taking stock of all the differences between the peoples of all ages and places, across continents and centuries, Purchas was most struck by what he called the “literall advantage”: the significance of writing. “By writing,” he wrote, “Man seems immortall.”19

A new chapter in the history of truth—foundational to the idea of truth on which the United States would one day stake and declare its independence—began on Columbus’s first voyage. If any man in history had a “literall advantage,” that man was Christopher Columbus. In Haiti in October 1492, under a scorching sun, with two of his captains as witnesses, Columbus (according to the notes taken by Las Casas) declared that “he

 

 

would take, as in fact he did take, possession of the said island for the king and for the queen his lords.” And then he wrote that down.20

This act was both new and strange. Marco Polo, traveling through the East in the thirteenth century, had not claimed China for Venice; nor did Sir John Mandeville, traveling through the Middle East in the fourteenth century, attempt to take possession of Persia, Syria, or Ethiopia. Columbus had read Marco Polo’s Travels and Mandeville’s Travels; he seems to have brought those books with him when he sailed.21 Unlike Polo and Mandeville, Columbus did not make a catalogue of the ways and beliefs of the people he met (only later did he hire Pané to do that). Instead, he decided that the people he met had no ways and beliefs. Every difference he saw as an absence.22 Insisting that they had no faith and no civil government and were therefore infidels and savages who could not rightfully own anything, he claimed possession of their land, by the act of writing. They were a people without truth; he would make his truth theirs. He would tell them where the dead go.

Columbus had this difference from Marco Polo and Mandeville, too: he made his voyages not long after Johannes Gutenberg, a German blacksmith, invented the printing press. Printing accelerated the diffusion of knowledge and broadened the historical record: things that are printed are much more likely to last than things that are merely written down, since printing produces many copies. The two men were often paired. “Two things which I always thought could be compared, not only to Antiquity, but to immortality,” wrote one sixteenth-century French philosopher, are “the invention of the printing press and the discovery of the new world.”23 Columbus widened the world, Gutenberg made it spin faster.

But Columbus himself did not consider the lands he’d visited to be a new world. He thought only that he’d found a new route to the old world. Instead, it was Amerigo Vespucci, the venturesome son of a notary from Florence, Italy, who crossed the ocean in 1503 and wrote, about the lands he found, “These we may rightly call a new world.” The report Vespucci brought home was soon published as a book called Mundus Novus, translated into eight languages and published in sixty different editions. What Vespucci reported discovering was rather difficult to believe. “I have found a continent more densely peopled and abounding in animals than our

 

 

Europe or Asia or Africa,” he wrote.24 It seemed a Garden of Eden, a place only ever before imagined. In 1516, Thomas More, a counselor to England’s king, Henry VIII, published a fictional account of a Portuguese sailor on one of Vespucci’s ships who had traveled just a bit farther, to an island where he found a perfect republic, named Utopia (literally, no place) —the island of nowhere.25

What did it mean to find someplace where nowhere was supposed to be? The world had long seemed to consist of three parts. In the seventh century, the Archbishop Isidore of Seville, writing an encyclopedia called the Etymologiae that circulated widely in manuscript—as many as a thousand handwritten copies survive—had drawn the world as a circle surrounded by oceans and divided by seas into three bodies of land, Asia, Europe, and Africa, inhabited by the descendants of the three sons of Noah: Shem, Japheth, and Ham. In 1472, Etymologiae became one of the very first books ever to be set in type and the archbishop’s map became the first world map ever printed.26 Twenty years later, it was obsolete.

Discovering that nowhere was somewhere meant work for mapmakers, another kind of writing that made claims of truth and possession. In 1507, Martin Waldseemüller, a German cartographer living in northern France who had in his hands a French translation of Mundus Novus, carved onto twelve woodblocks a new map of the world, a Universalis Cosmographia, and printed more than a thousand copies. People pasted the twelve prints together and mounted them like wallpaper to make a giant map, four feet high by eight feet wide. Wallpaper fades and falls apart: only a single copy of Waldseemüller’s map survives. But one word on that long-lost map has lasted longer than anything else Waldseemüller ever wrote. With a nod to Vespucci, Waldseemüller, inventing a word, gave the fourth part of the world, that unknown utopia, a name: he labeled it “America.”27

 

 

A drawing originally made in the seventh century by Isidore of Seville became, in 1472, the first printed map of the world; twenty years later, it was obsolete.

This name stuck by the merest accident. Much else did not last. The Taíno story about the cave, the Iroquois story about the turtle, the Akan story about the old woman with the pestle, the Old Testament story of Adam and Eve—these stories would be unknown, or hardly known, if they hadn’t been written down or recorded. That they lasted mattered. Modernity began when people fighting over which of these stories was true began to think differently about the nature of truth, about the nature of the past, and about the nature of rule.

 

 

II.

IN 1493, WHEN COLUMBUS returned from his unimaginable voyage, a Spanish-born pope granted all of the lands on the other side of the ocean, everything west of a line of longitude some three hundred miles west of Cape Verde, to Spain, and granted what lay east of that line, western Africa, to Portugal, the pope claiming the authority to divvy up lands inhabited by tens of millions of people as if he were the god of Genesis. Unsurprisingly, the heads of England, France, and the Netherlands found this papal pronouncement absurd. “The sun shines for me as for the others,” said the king of France. “I should like to see the clause of Adam’s will which excludes me from a share of the world.”28 Nor did Spain’s claim go uncontested on the other side of the world. A Taíno man told Guatícabanú that the Spanish “were wicked and had taken their land by force.”29 Guatícabanú told that to Ramón Pané, who wrote it down. Ferdinand Columbus copied that out. And so did a scholar in a prison in Venice. It was as if that Taíno man had taken down from his roof a gourd full of the bones of his son and opened it, spilling out an ocean of ideas. The work of conquest involved pretending that ocean could be poured back into that gourd.

 

 

Artists working for the sixteenth-century mestizo Diego Muñoz Camargo illustrated the Spanish punishment for native converts who abandoned Christianity.

An ocean of ideas not fitting into a gourd, people in both Europe and the Americas groped for meaning and wondered how to account for difference and sameness. They asked new questions, and they asked old questions

 

 

more sharply: Are all peoples one? And if they are, by what right can one people take the land of another or their labor or, even, their lives?

Any historical reckoning with these questions begins with counting and measuring. Between 1500 and 1800, roughly two and a half million Europeans moved to the Americas; they carried twelve million Africans there by force; and as many as fifty million Native Americans died, chiefly of disease.30 Europe is spread over about four million square miles, the Americas over about twenty million square miles. For centuries, geography had constrained Europe’s demographic and economic growth; that era came to a close when Europeans claimed lands five times the size of Europe. Taking possession of the Americas gave Europeans a surplus of land; it ended famine and led to four centuries of economic growth, growth without precedent, growth many Europeans understood as evidence of the grace of God. One Spaniard, writing from New Spain to his brother in Valladolid in 1592, told him, “This land is as good as ours, for God has given us more here than there, and we shall be better off.”31 Even the poor prospered.

The European extraction of the wealth of the Americas made possible the rise of capitalism: new forms of trade, investment, and profit. Between 1500 and 1600 alone, Europeans recorded carrying back to Europe from the Americas nearly two hundred tons of gold and sixteen thousand tons of silver; much more traveled as contraband. “The discovery of America, and that of a passage to the East Indies by the Cape of Good Hope, are the two greatest and most important events recorded in the history of mankind,” Adam Smith wrote, in The Wealth of Nations, in 1776. But the voyages of Columbus and Dias also marked a turning point in the development of another economic system, slavery: the wealth of the Americas flowed to Europe by the forced labor of Africans.32

Slavery had been practiced in many parts of the world for centuries. People tended to enslave their enemies, people they considered different enough from themselves to condemn to lifelong servitude. Sometimes, though not often, the status of slaves was heritable: the children of slaves were condemned to a life of slavery, too. Many wars had to do with religion, and because many slaves were prisoners of war, slaves and their owners tended to be people of different faiths: Christians enslaved Jews; Muslims enslaved Christians; Christians enslaved Muslims. Since the

 

 

Middle Ages, Muslim traders from North Africa had traded in Africans from below the Sahara, where slavery was widespread. In much of Africa, labor, not land, constituted the sole form of property recognized by law, a form of consolidating wealth and generating revenue, which meant that African states tended to be small and that, while European wars were fought for land, African wars were fought for labor. People captured in African wars were bought and sold in large markets by merchants and local officials and kings and, beginning in the 1450s, by Portuguese sea captains.33

Columbus, a veteran of that trade, reported to Ferdinand and Isabella in 1492 that it would be the work of a moment to enslave the people of Haiti, since “with 50 men all of them could be held in subjection and can be made to do whatever one might wish.”34 In sugar mines and gold mines, the Spanish worked their native slaves to death while many more died of disease. Soon, they turned to another source of forced labor, Africans traded by the Portuguese.

Counting and keeping accounts on the cargo of every ship, Europeans found themselves puzzled by an extraordinary asymmetry. People moved from Europe and Africa to the Americas; wealth moved from the Americas to Europe; and animals and plants moved from Europe to the Americas. But very few people or animals or plants moved from the Americas to Europe or Africa, at least not successfully. “It appears as if some invisible barrier existed preventing passage Eastward, though allowing it Westward,” a later botanist wrote.35 The one-way migration of people made self-evident sense: people controlled the ships and they carried far more people west than east, bringing soldiers and missionaries, settlers and slaves. But the one-way migration of animals and plants was, for centuries, until the late nineteenth- century age of Darwin and the germ theory of disease, altogether baffling, explained only by faith in divine providence: Christians took it as a sign that their conquest was ordained by God.

The signs came in abundance. When Columbus made a second voyage across the ocean in 1493, he commanded a fleet of seventeen ships carrying twelve hundred men, and another kind of army, too: seeds and cuttings of wheat, chickpeas, melons, onions, radishes, greens, grapevines, and sugar cane, and horses, pigs, cattle, chickens, sheep, and goats, male and female, two by two. Hidden among the men and the plants and the animals were

 

 

stowaways, seeds stuck to animal skins or clinging to the folds of cloaks and blankets, in clods of mud. Most of these were the seeds of plants Europeans considered to be weeds, like bluegrass, daisies, thistle, nettles, ferns, and dandelions. Weeds grow best in disturbed soil, and nothing disturbs soil better than an army of men, razing forests for timber and fuel and turning up the ground cover with their boots, and the hooves of their horses and oxen and cattle. Livestock eat grass; people eat livestock: livestock turn grass into food that humans can eat. The animals that Europeans brought to the New World—cattle, pigs, goats, sheep, chickens, and horses—had no natural predators in the Americas but they did have an abundant food supply. They reproduced in numbers unfathomable in Europe. Cattle populations doubled every fifteen months. Nothing, though, beat the pigs. Pigs convert one-fifth of everything they eat into food for human consumption (cattle, by contrast, convert one-twentieth); they feed themselves, by foraging, and they have litters of ten or more. Within a few years of Columbus’s second voyage, the eight pigs he brought with him had descendants numbering in the thousands. Wrote one observer, “All the mountains swarmed with them.”36

Meanwhile, the people of the New World: They died by the hundreds. They died by the thousands, by the tens of thousands, by the hundreds of thousands, by the tens of millions. The isolation of the Americas from the rest of the world, for hundreds of millions of years, meant that diseases to which Europeans and Africans had built up immunities over millennia were entirely new to the native peoples of the Americas. European ships, with their fleets of people and animals and plants, brought along, unseen, battalions of diseases: smallpox, measles, diphtheria, trachoma, whooping cough, chicken pox, bubonic plague, malaria, typhoid fever, yellow fever, dengue fever, scarlet fever, amoebic dysentery, and influenza, diseases that had evolved alongside humans and their domesticated animals living in dense, settled populations—cities—where human and animal waste breeds vermin, like mice and rats and roaches. Most of the indigenous peoples of the Americas, though, didn’t live in dense settlements, and even those who lived in villages tended to move with the seasons, taking apart their towns and rebuilding them somewhere else. They didn’t accumulate filth, and they didn’t live in crowds. They suffered from very few infectious diseases.

 

 

Europeans, exposed to these diseases for thousands of years, had developed vigorous immune systems, and antibodies particular to bacteria to which no one in the New World had ever been exposed.

The consequence was catastrophe. Of one hundred people exposed to the smallpox virus for the first time, nearly one hundred became infected, and twenty-five to thirty-three died. Before they died, they exposed many more people: smallpox incubates for ten to fourteen days, which meant that people who didn’t yet feel sick tended to flee, carrying the disease as far as they could go before collapsing. Some people who were infected with smallpox could have recovered, if they’d been taken care of, but when one out of every three people was sick, and a lot of people ran, there was no one left to nurse the sick, who died of thirst and grief and of being alone.37 And they died, too, of torture: already weakened by disease, they were worked to death, and starved to death. On the islands in the Caribbean, so many natives died so quickly that Spaniards decided very early on to conquer more territory, partly to take more prisoners to work in their gold and silver mines, as slaves.

Spanish conquistadors first set foot on the North American mainland in 1513; in a matter of decades, New Spain spanned not only all of what became Mexico but also more than half of what became the continental United States, territory that stretched, east to west, from Florida to California, and as far north as Virginia on the Atlantic Ocean and Canada on the Pacific.38 Diseases spread ahead of the Spanish invaders, laying waste to wide swaths of the continent. It became commonplace, inevitable, even, first among the Spanish, and then, in turn, among the French, the Dutch, and the English, to see their own prosperity and good health and the terrible sicknesses suffered by the natives as signs from God. “Touching these savages, there is a thing that I cannot omit to remark to you,” one French settler wrote: “it appears visibly that God wishes that they yield their place to new peoples.” Death convinced them at once of their right and of the truth of their faith. “The natives, they are all dead of small Poxe,” John Winthrop wrote when he arrived in New England in 1630: “the Lord hathe cleared our title to what we possess.”39

Europeans craved these omens from their God, because otherwise their title to the land and their right to enslave had little foundation in the laws of

 

 

men. Often, this gave them pause. In 1504, the king of Spain assembled a group of scholars and lawyers to provide him with guidance about whether the conquest “was in agreement with human and divine law.” The debate turned on two questions: Did the natives own their own land (that is, did they possess “dominion”), and could they rule themselves (that is, did they possess “sovereignty”)? To answer these questions, the king’s advisers turned to the philosophy of antiquity.

Under Roman law, government exists to manage relations of property, the king’s ministers argued, and since, according to Columbus, the natives had no government, they had no property, and therefore no dominion. Regarding sovereignty, the king’s ministers turned to Aristotle’s Politics. “That some should rule and others be ruled is a thing not only necessary, but expedient,” Aristotle had written. “From the hour of their birth, some are marked out for subjection, others for rule.” All relations are relations of hierarchy, according to Aristotle; the soul rules over the body, men over animals, males over females, and masters over slaves. Slavery, for Aristotle, was not a matter of law but a matter of nature: “he who is by nature not his own but another’s man, is by nature a slave; and he may be said to be another’s man who, being a human being, is also a possession.” Those who are by nature possessions are those who have a lesser capacity for reason; these people “are by nature slaves,” Aristotle wrote, “and it is better for them as for all inferiors that they should be under the rule of a master.”40

 

 

An Aztec artist rendered the Spanish conquistadors, led by Cortés, invading Mexico.

The king was satisfied: the natives did not own their land and were, by nature, slaves. The conquest continued. But across the ocean, a trumpet of protest was sounded from a pulpit. In December 1511, on the fourth Sunday of Advent, Antonio de Montesinos, a Dominican priest, delivered a sermon in a church on Hispaniola. Disagreeing with the king’s ministers, he said the conquistadors were committing unspeakable crimes. “Tell me, by what right or justice do you hold these Indians in such cruel and horrible slavery? By what right do you wage such detestable wars on these people who lived mildly and peacefully in their own lands, where you have consumed infinite

 

 

numbers of them with unheard of murders and desolations?” And then he asked, “Are they not men?”41

Out of this protest came a disquieting decision, in 1513: the conquistadors would be required to read aloud to anyone they proposed to conquer and enslave a document called the Requerimiento. It is, in brief, a history of the world, from creation to conquest, a story of origins as justification for violence.

“The Lord our God, Living and Eternal, created the Heaven and the Earth, and one man and one woman, of whom you and we, all the men of the world, were and are descendants, and all those who come after us,” it begins. It asks that any people to whom it was read “acknowledge the Church as the Ruler and Superior of the whole world, and the high priest called Pope, and in his name the King and Queen.” If the natives accepted the story of Genesis and the claim that these distant rulers had a right to rule them, the Spanish promised, “We in their name shall receive you in all love and charity, and shall leave you your wives, and your children, and your lands, free without servitude.” But if the natives rejected these truths, the Spanish warned, “we shall forcibly enter into your country, and shall make war against you in all ways and manners that we can, and shall subject you to the yoke and obedience of the Church and of their Highnesses; we shall take you and your wives and your children, and shall make slaves of them.”42

With the Requerimiento in hand, with its promises of love and charity and its threats of annihilation and devastation, the Spanish marched across the North American continent. In 1519, determined to ride to glory, Hernán Cortés, mayor of Santiago, Cuba, led six hundred Spaniards and more than a thousand native allies thundering across the land with fifteen cannons. In Mexico, he captured Tenochtitlán, a city said to have been grander than Paris or Rome, and destroyed it without pity or mercy. His men burned the Aztec libraries, their books of songs, their histories written down, a desolation described in a handful of surviving icnocuicatl, songs of their sorrow. One begins,

Broken spears lie in the roads; we have torn our hair in our grief. The houses are roofless now, and their walls

 

 

are red with blood.43

In 1540, a young nobleman named Francisco Vásquez de Coronado led an army of Spaniards who were crossing the continent in search of a fabled city of gold. In what is now New Mexico, they found a hive of baked-clay apartment houses, the kind of town the Spanish took to calling a pueblo. Dutifully, Coronado had the Requerimiento read aloud. The Zuni listened to a man speaking a language they could not possibly understand. “They wore coats of iron, and warbonnets of metal, and carried for weapons short canes that spit fire and made thunder,” the Zuni later said about Coronado’s men. Zuni warriors poured cornmeal on the ground, and motioned to the Spanish they dare not cross that line. A battle began. The Zuni, fighting with arrows, were routed by the Spaniards, who fought with guns.44

The conquest raged on, and so did the debate, even as the lines between the peoples of the Americas, Africa, and Europe blurred. The Spanish, unlike later English colonizers, did not travel to the New World in families, or even with women: they came as armies of men. They seized and raped women and they loved and married them and raised families together. La Malinche, a Nahua woman who was given to Cortés as a slave and who became his interpreter, had a son with him, born about 1523, the freighted symbol of a fateful union. In much of New Spain, the mixed-race children of Spanish men and Indian women, known as mestizos, outnumbered Indians; an intricate caste system marked gradations of skin color, mixtures of Europeans, Native Americans, and Africans, as if skin color were like dyes made of plants, the yellow of sassafras, the red of beets, the black of carob. Later, the English would recognize only black and white, a fantasy of stark and impossible difference, of nights without twilight and days without dawns. And yet both regimes of race, a culture of mixing or a culture of pretending not to mix, pressed upon the brows of every person of the least curiosity the question of common humanity: Are all peoples one?

Bartolomé de Las Casas had been in Hispaniola as a settler in 1511, when Montesinos had preached and asked, “Are they not men?” Stirred, he’d given up his slaves and become a priest and a scholar, a historian of the conquest, which is what led him, later, to copy parts of Columbus’s diary and Pané’s Antiquities. In 1542, Las Casas wrote a book called Brevísima Relación de la Destrucción de las Indias, history not as

 

 

justification but as a cry of conscience. With the zeal of a man burdened by his own guilt, he asked, “What man of sound mind will approve a war against men who are harmless, ignorant, gentle temperate, unarmed, and destitute of every human defense?”45 Eight years later, a new Spanish king summoned Las Casas and other scholars to his court in the clay-roofed city of Valladolid for another debate. Were the native peoples of the New World barbarians who had violated the laws of nature by, for instance, engaging in cannibalism, in which case it was lawful to wage war against them? Or were they innocent of these violations, in which case the war was unlawful?

 

 

 

Mexican casta, or caste, paintings purported to chart sixteen different possible intermarriages of Spanish, Indian, and African men and women and their offspring.

Las Casas argued that the conquest was unlawful, insisting that charges of cannibalism were “sheer fables and shameless nonsense.” The opposing argument was made by Juan Ginés de Sepúlveda, Spain’s royal historian, who had never been to the New World. A translator of Aristotle, Sepúlveda cited Aristotle’s theory of natural slavery. He said that the difference between the natives and the Spaniards was as great as that “between apes and men.” He asked, “How are we to doubt that these people, so uncultivated, so barbarous, and so contaminated with such impiety and lewdness, have not been justly conquered?”46

The judges, divided, failed to issue a decision. The conquest continued. Broken spears clattered to the ground and the walls ran red with blood.

III.

TO ALL OF THIS, the English came remarkably late. The Spanish had settled at Saint Augustine, Florida, in 1565 and by 1607 were settling the adobe town of Santa Fe, nearly two thousand miles away. The French, who made their first voyages in 1534, were by 1608 building what would become the stone city of Quebec, a castle on a hill. The English sent John Cabot across the Atlantic in 1497, but he disappeared on his return voyage, never to be seen again, and the English gave barely any thought to sending anyone after him. The word “colony” didn’t even enter the English language until the 1550s. And although England chartered trading companies—the Muscovy Company in 1555, the Turkey Company, in 1581, and the East India Company, in 1600—all looked eastward, not westward. About America, England hesitated.

In 1584, Elizabeth, the fierce and determined queen of England, asked one of her shrewdest ministers, Richard Hakluyt, whether she ought to found her own colonies in the Americas. She had in mind the Spanish and their idolatries, and their cruelties, and their vast riches, and their tyranny. By the time Elizabeth began staring west across the ocean, Las Casas’s pained history of the conquest had long since been translated into English,

 

 

lavishly illustrated with engravings of atrocities, often under the title Spanish Cruelties and, later, as The Tears of the Indians. The English had come to believe—as an article of faith, as a matter of belonging to the “English nation”—that they were nobler than the Spanish: more just, wiser, gentler, and dedicated to liberty. “The Spaniards governe in the Indies with all pride and tyranie,” Hakluyt reminded his queen, and, as with any people who are made slaves, the natives “all yell and crye with one voice Liberta, liberta.”47 England could deliver them.

Elizabeth rests her hand on a globe, laying claim to North America.

England’s notion of itself as a land of liberty was the story of the English nation stitched to the story of the English state. The Spanish were Catholic, but, while conquistadors had been building a New Spain, the English had become Protestant. In the 1530s, Henry VIII had established the Church of England, defiantly separate from the Church of Rome.

 

 

Occupied with religious and domestic affairs, England had been altogether tentative in venturing forth to the New World. When Henry VIII died, in 1547, his son Edward became king, but by 1552, Edward was mortally ill. Hoping to avoid the ascension of his half-sister Mary, who was a Catholic, Edward named as his successor his cousin Lady Jane Grey. But when Edward died, Mary seized power, had Jane beheaded, and became the first ruling queen of England. She attempted to restore Catholicism and persecuted religious dissenters, nearly three hundred of whom were burned at the stake. Protestants who opposed her rule on religious grounds decided to argue that she had no right to reign because she was a woman, claiming that for the weak to govern the strong was “the subversion of good order.” Another of Mary’s Protestant critics complained that her reign was a punishment from God, who “haste set to rule over us an woman whom nature hath formed to be in subjeccion unto man.” Mary’s Catholic defenders, meanwhile, argued that, politically speaking, Mary was a man, “the Prince female.”

When Mary died, in 1558, Elizabeth, a Protestant, succeeded her, and Mary’s supporters, who tried to argue against Elizabeth’s right to rule, were left to battle against their own earlier arguments: they couldn’t very well argue that Elizabeth couldn’t rule because she was a woman, when they had earlier insisted that her sex did not bar Mary from the throne. The debate moved to new terrain, and clarified a number of English ideas about the nature of rule. Elizabeth’s best defender argued that if God decided “the female should rule and govern,” it didn’t matter that women were “weake in nature, feable in bodie, softe in courage,” because God would make every right ruler strong. In any case, England’s constitution abided by a “rule mixte,” in which the authority of the monarch was checked by the power of Parliament; also, “it is not she that ruleth but the lawes.” Elizabeth herself called on yet another authority: the favor of the people.48 A mixed constitution, the rule of law, the will of the people: these were English ideas that Americans would one day make their own, crying, “Liberty!”

Elizabeth eyed Spain, which had been warring with England, France, and a rebelling Netherlands (the Dutch did not achieve independence from Spain until 1609). She set out to fight Spain on every field. On the question of founding colonies in the Americas, Hakluyt submitted to Elizabeth a

 

 

report that he titled “A particular discourse concerning the greate necessitie and manifold comodyties that are like to growe to this Realme of Englande by the Western discoveries lately attempted.” How much the queen was animated by animosity to Spain is nicely illustrated in the title of a report submitted to her at the very same time by another adviser: a “Discourse how Her Majesty may annoy the King of Spain.”49

Hakluyt believed the time had come for England to do more than attack Spanish ships. Establishing colonies “will be greately for the inlargement of the gospell of Christe,” he promised, and “will yelde unto us all the commodities of Europe, Affrica, and Asia.” And if the queen of England were to plant colonies in the New World, word would soon spread that the English “use the natural people there with all humanitie, curtesie, and freedome,” and the natives would “yielde themselves to her government and revolte cleane from the Spaniarde.”50 England would prosper; Protestantism would conquer Catholicism; liberty would conquer tyranny.

Elizabeth was unpersuaded. She was also distracted. In 1584, she’d expelled the Spanish ambassador after discovering a Spanish plot to invade England by way of Scotland. She liked the idea of an English foothold in the New World, but she didn’t want the Crown to cover the cost. She decided to issue a royal patent—a license—to one of her favorite courtiers, the dashing Walter Ralegh, writer, poet, and spy, granting him the right to land in North America south of a place called Newfoundland: A new- found-land, a new world, a utopia, a once-nowhere.

Ralegh was an adventurer, a man of action, but he was also a man of letters. Newly knighted, he launched an expedition in 1584. He did not sail himself but sent out a fleet of seven ships and six hundred men, providing them with a copy of Las Casas’s “book of Spanish crueltyes with fayr pictures,” to be used to convince the natives that the English, unlike the Spanish, were men of mercy and love, liberty and charity. Ralegh may well also have sent along with his expedition a copy of a new book of essays by the French philosopher Michel de Montaigne. Like William Shakespeare, Ralegh was deeply influenced by Montaigne, whose 1580 essay “Of Cannibals” testifies to how, in one of the more startling ironies in the history of humanity, the very violence that characterized the meeting

 

 

between one half of the world and the other, which sowed so much destruction, also carried within it the seeds of something else.51

“Barbarians are no more marvelous to us than we are to them, nor for better cause,” Montaigne wrote. “Each man calls barbarism whatever is not his own practice.”52 They are to us as we are to them, each true: out of two truths, one.

Ralegh’s men made landfall on an island on the Outer Banks of what is now North Carolina, sweeping beaches edged with seagrass and stands of pine trees and palms. The ships sailed away, leaving behind 104 men with very little by way of supplies; the supply ship had been damaged, nearly running aground on the shoals. The site had been chosen because it was well hidden and difficult to reach. It may have been a good hideout for pirates, but it was a terrible place to build a colony. The settlers planned to wait out the winter, awaiting supplies they hoped would arrive in the spring. Meanwhile, they intended to look for gold and for a safer, deeper harbor. They built a fort, surrounded by palisades. They aimed its guns out over the wide water, believing their enemy to be Spain. They built houses outside the protection of the fort. They had very little idea that the people who already lived in the Outer Banks might pose a danger to them.

They sent home glowing reports of a land of ravishing beauty and staggering plenty. Ralph Lane, the head of the expedition, wrote that “all the kingdoms and states of Christendom, their commodities joined in one together, do not yield either more good or more plentiful whatsoever for public use is needful, or pleasing for delight.” Yet when the supply ship was delayed, the colonists, in the midst of plenty, began to starve. The natives, to whom the colonists had been preaching the Gospel, began telling them, “Our Lord God was not God, since he suffered us to sustain much hunger.” In June, a fleet arrived, commanded by Sir Francis Drake, a swashbuckler who’d sailed across the whole of the globe. He carried a cargo of three hundred Africans, bound in chains. Drake told the colonists that either he could leave them with food, and with a ship to look for a safer harbor, or else he could bring them home. Every colonist opted to leave. On Drake’s ships, they took the places of the Africans, people that Drake may have simply dumped into the cobalt sea, unwanted cargo.

 

 

Another expedition sent in 1587 to what had come to be called Roanoke fared no better. John White, an artist and mapmaker who had carefully studied the reports of the first expedition, aimed to establish a permanent colony not on the island but in nearby Chesapeake Bay, in a city to be called Ralegh. Instead, one blunder followed another. White sailed back to England that fall, in hopes of securing supplies and support. His timing could hardly have been less propitious. In 1588, a fleet of 150 Spanish ships attempted to invade England. Eventually, the armada was defeated. But with a naval war with Spain raging, White had no success in scaring up more ships to sail to Roanoke, leaving the settlement marooned.

Any record of the fate of the English colony at Roanoke, like most of what has ever happened in the history of the world, was lost. When White finally returned, in 1590, he found not a single Englishman, nor his daughter, nor his grandchild, a baby named Virginia, after Elizabeth, the virgin queen. Nearly all that remained of the settlement were the letters “CRO” carved into the trunk of a tree, a sign that White and the colonists had agreed upon before he left, a sign that they’d packed their things and headed inland to find a better site to settle. Three letters, and not one letter more. They were never heard from again.

“We found the people most gentle, loving and faithful, void of all guile and treason and such as lived after the manner of the Golden Age,” Arthur Barlowe, one of Ralegh’s captains, had earlier written home, describing Roanoke as a kind of Eden.53 The natives weren’t barbarians; they were ancestors, and the New World was the oldest world of all.

In the brutal, bloody century between Columbus’s voyage and John White’s, an idea was born, out of fantasy, out of violence, the idea that there exists in the world a people who live in an actual Garden of Eden, a state of nature, before the giving of laws, before the forming of government. This imagined history of America became an English book of genesis, their new truth.

“In the beginning,” the Englishman John Locke would write, “all the world was America.” In America, everything became a beginning.

 

 

Two

THE RULERS AND THE RULED

This deerskin cloak, likely worn by Powhatan, was by the middle of the seventeenth century housed in a museum in Oxford, England.

THEY SKINNED THE DEER WITH KNIVES MADE OF STONE and scraped the hides of flesh and fat with a rib bone. They soaked the hides in wood ash

 

 

and corn mash and stretched them on a frame of sticks before sewing them together with thread made of tendons, twisted. Onto these stitched and tanned hides, they embroidered hundreds of tiny shells of seashore snails, emptied and dried, into the pattern of a man, flanked by a white-tailed deer and a mountain lion in a field of thirty-four circles.

This man was their ruler, the animals his spirits, and the circles the villages over which he ruled. One of his names was Wahunsunacock, but the English called him Powhatan. He may have worn the deerskin as a cloak; he may have used it to honor his ancestors. He may have given it to the English as a gift, in 1608, when their king, James, sent to him the gift of a scarlet robe, one robe for another. Or, the English might have stolen it. Somehow, someone carried it to England on a ship. In 1638, an Englishman who saw it in a museum in England, called the sinew-stitched deerskin decorated with shells “the robe of the King of Virginia.” But if it was Powhatan’s cloak, it also served as a map of his realm.1

The English called Powhatan “king,” for the sake of diplomacy, but it was the king of England who claimed to be the king of Virginia: James considered Powhatan among his subjects. The nature and history of the two kings’ reigns casts light on matters with which England’s colonists would wrestle for more than a century and a half: Who rules, and by what right?

Powhatan was born about 1545. At the death of his father, he inherited rule over six neighboring peoples; in the 1590s, he’d begun expanding his reign. On the other side of the ocean, James was born in 1566; the next year, when his mother died, he became king of Scotland. In 1603, after the death of his cousin Elizabeth, James was crowned king of England. The separation of the Church of England from the Church of Rome had elevated the monarchy, since the king no longer answered to the pope, and James believed that he, like the pope, was divinely appointed by God. “As to dispute what God may doe is Blasphemie,” he wrote, in a treatise called The True Law of Free Monarchies, “so is it Sedition in subjects to dispute what a King may do”—as if he were both infallible and above the rule of law.2

James, a pope-like king, proved more determined to found a colony in the New World than Elizabeth had been. In 1606, he issued a charter, granting to a body of men permission to settle on “that parte of America commonly called Virginia,” land that he claimed as his property, since, as

 

 

the charter explained, these lands were “not now actually possessed by any Christian Prince or People” and the natives “live in Darkness,” meaning that they did not know Christ.3

Unlike the Spanish, who set out to conquer, the English were determined to settle, which is why they at first traded with Powhatan, instead of warring with him. James granted to the colony’s settlers the right to “dig, mine, and search for all Manner of Mines of Gold, Silver, and Copper,” the very kind of initiatives taken by Spain, but he also urged them to convert the natives to Christianity, on the ground that, “in propagating of Christian Religion to such People,” the English and Scottish might “in time bring the Infidels and Savages, living in those parts, to human Civility, and to a settled and quiet Government.”4 They proposed, he insisted, to bring not tyranny but liberty.

James’s charter, like Powhatan’s deerskin, is also a kind of map. (“Charter” has the same Latin root as “chart,” meaning a map.) By his charter, James granted land to two corporations, the Virginia Company and the Plymouth Company: “Wee woulde vouchsafe unto them our licence to make habitacion, plantacion and to deduce a colonie . . . at any Place upon the said-Coast of Virginia or America, where they shall think fit and convenient.”5 Virginia, at the time, stretched from what is now South Carolina to Canada: all of this, England claimed.

England’s empire would have a different character than that of either Spain or France. Catholics could make converts by the act of baptism, but Protestants were supposed to teach converts to read the Bible; that meant permanent settlements, families, communities, schools, and churches. Also, England’s empire would be maritime—its navy was its greatest strength. It would be commercial. And, of greatest significance for the course of the nation that would grow out of those settlements, its colonists would be free men, not vassals, guaranteed their “English liberties.”6

At such a great distance from their king, James’s colonists would remain his subjects but they would rule themselves. His 1606 charter decreed that the king would appoint a thirteen-man council in England to oversee the colonies, but, as for local affairs, the settlers would establish their own thirteen-man council to “govern and order all Matters and Causes.” And, most importantly, the colonists would retain all of their

 

 

rights as English subjects, as if they had never left England. If the king meant his guarantee of the colonists’ English liberties, privileges, and immunities as liberties, privileges, and immunities due to them if they were to return to England, the colonists would come to understand them as guaranteed in the colonies, a freedom attached to their very selves.7

Over the course of the seventeenth and early eighteenth centuries, the English established more than two dozen colonies, founding a sea-born empire of coastal settlements that stretched from the fishing ports of Newfoundland to the rice fields of Georgia and, in the Caribbean, from Jamaica and Antigua to Bermuda and Barbados. Beginning with the Virginia charter, the idea of English liberties for English subjects was planted on American soil and, with it, the king’s claim to dominion, a claim that rested on the idea that people like Powhatan and his people lived in darkness and without government, no matter that the English called their leaders kings.

And yet England’s own political order was about to be toppled. At the beginning of English colonization, the king’s subjects on both sides of the ocean believed that men were created unequal and that God had granted to their king the right to rule over them. These were their old truths. At the end of the seventeenth century, John Locke, imagining an American genesis and borrowing from Christian theology, would argue that all men were born into a state “of equality, wherein all the power and jurisdiction is reciprocal, no one having more than another,” each “equal to the greatest, and subject to no body.”8 By 1776, many of the king’s subjects in many of his colonies so wholly agreed with this point of view that they accepted Thomas Paine’s “plain truth,” that, “all men being originally equals,” nothing was more absurd than the idea that God had granted to one person and his heirs the right to rule over all others. “Nature disapproves it,” Paine insisted, “otherwise she would not so frequently turn it into ridicule by giving mankind an ass for a lion.”9 These became their new truths.

What had happened between the Virginia charter and the Declaration of Independence to convince so many people that all men are created equal and that governments derive their just powers from the consent of the governed? The answer lies in artifacts as different as a deerskin cloak and a scarlet robe and in places as far from one another as the ruins of ancient

 

 

castles and the hulls of slave ships, each haunted by the rattling of iron- forged chains.

I.

VIRGINIA’S FIRST CHARTER was prepared in the office of Attorney General Edward Coke, a sour-tempered man with a pointed chin, a systematic mind, and an ungovernable tongue. Coke, who invested in the Virginia Company, was the leading theorist of English common law, the body of unwritten law established by centuries of custom and cases, to which Coke sought to apply the precepts of rationalism. “Reason is the life of the law,” Coke wrote, and “the common law itself is nothing else but reason.” In 1589, when he was thirty-seven, Coke became a member of Parliament. Five years later, Elizabeth appointed him attorney general. In 1603, after James threw Sir Walter Ralegh in the Tower of London, Coke prosecuted Ralegh for treason, for plotting against the king. “Thou viper,” Coke said to Ralegh in court, “thou hast an English face, but a Spanish heart.” Ralegh languished in prison for thirteen years, writing his history of the world, before he was beheaded. Meanwhile, his conviction freed the right to settle Virginia—a right Elizabeth had granted to Ralegh—to be newly issued by James, under Coke’s watchful eye. Two months after issuing the colony’s charter, James appointed Coke chief justice of the court of common pleas.10

 

 

The Virginia Company recruited colonists with advertisements that lavishly promised an Eden-like bounty.

 

 

To settle the new colony, the Virginia Company rounded up men who were eager to make their own fortunes, along with soldiers who’d fought in England’s religious wars against Catholics and Muslims. Burly and fearless John Smith, all of twenty-six, had already fought the Spanish in France and in the Netherlands and, with the Austrian army, had battled the Turks in Hungary. Captured by Muslims, he’d been sold into slavery, from which he’d eventually escaped. Engraved on his coat of arms, with three heads of Turks, was his motto, vincere est vivere: to conquer is to live.11 George Sandys, Virginia’s treasurer, had traveled by camel to Jerusalem and had written at length about Islam; William Strachey, the colony’s secretary, had traveled in Istanbul. Much like the Spanish, these men and their investors wanted to found a colony in the New World to search for gold to fund wars to defeat Muslims in the Old World, even as they pledged not to inflict “Spanish cruelties” on the American natives.12

In December 1606, 105 Englishmen—and no women—boarded three ships, carrying a box containing a list of the men appointed by the Virginia Company to govern the colony, “not to be opened, nor the governours knowne until they arrived in Virginia.” During the voyage, Smith was confined belowdecks, shackled and in chains, accused of plotting a mutiny to “make himselfe king.”13 In May 1607, when the expedition finally landed on the banks of a brackish river named after their king, the box was opened, and it was discovered that Smith, though still a prisoner, was on that list.14 Unclapped came his chains.

Whatever “quiet government” the company’s merchants had intended, the colonists proved ungovernable. They built a fort and began looking for gold. But a band of soldiers and gentlemen-adventurers proved unwilling to clear fields or plant and harvest crops; instead, they stole food from Powhatan’s people, stores of corn and beans. Smith, disgusted, complained that the company had sent hardly any but the most useless of settlers. He counted one carpenter, two blacksmiths, and a flock of footmen, and wrote the rest off as “Gentlemen, Tradesmen, Servingmen, libertines, and such like, ten times more fit to spoyle a Commonwealth, than either begin one, or but helpe to maintaine one.”15

In 1608, Smith, elected the colony’s governor, made a rule: “he who does not worke, shall not eat.”16 By way of diplomacy, he staged an

 

 

elaborate coronation ceremony, crowning Powhatan “king,” and draping upon his shoulders the scarlet robe sent by James. Whatever this gesture meant to Powhatan, the English intended it as an act of their sovereignty, insisting that, in accepting these gifts, Powhatan had submitted to English rule: “Powhatan, their chiefe King, received voluntarilie a crown and a scepter, with a full acknowledgment of dutie and submission.”17 And still the English starved, and still they raided native villages. In the fall of 1609, the colonists revolted—auguring so many revolts to come—and sent Smith back to England, declaring that he had made Virginia, under his leadership, “a misery, a ruine, a death, a hell.”18

The real hell was yet to come. In the winter of 1609–10, five hundred colonists, having failed to farm or fish or hunt and having succeeded at little except making their neighbors into enemies, were reduced to sixty. “Many, through extreme hunger, have run out of their naked beds being so lean that they looked like anatomies, crying out, we are starved, we are starved,” wrote the colony’s lieutenant governor, George Percy, the eighth son of the earl of Northumberland, reporting that “one of our Colline murdered his wife Ripped the Childe outt of her woambe and threwe it into the River and after Chopped the Mother in pieces and salted her for his food.”19 They ate one another.

Word of this dire state of affairs soon reached England. Like nearly everything else reported from across the ocean, it set minds alight. The philosopher Thomas Hobbes, who served on the board of the Virginia Company, eyed the descent of the colony into anarchy with more than passing interest. In 1622, four years after Powhatan’s death, the natives rose up in rebellion and tried to oust the English from their land, killing hundreds of new immigrants in what the English called the “Virginia massacre.” Hobbes, working out a theory of the origins of civil society by deducing an original state of nature, pondered the violence in Virginia. “The savage people in many places of America . . . have no government at all, and live at this day in that brutish manner,” he would later write, in The Leviathan, a treatise in which he concluded that the state of nature is a state of war, “of every man against every man.”20

Miraculously, the colony recovered; its population grew and its economy thrived with a new crop, tobacco, a plant found only in the New

South Carolina state convention:

Question 12 pts
In 1832 a South Carolina state convention:
declared the tariffs of 1828 and 1832 null and void within the state.
ordered the state militia to arrest customs officials and impound their collections.
declared that the state had seceded from the Union.
threatened to raise an army to march on Washington, D.C., and arrest Jackson for his unconstitutional actions.

Flag this QuestionQuestion 22 pts
In what way did John C. Calhouns arguments in the Nullification crisis fit into American constitutional and political history?
They postponed arguments based on states rights until well into the twentieth century.
They revived arguments made by the Antifederalists in the debate over the Constitutions ratification and by Jefferson and Madison in the Kentucky and Virginia resolutions of 1798.
They rested on the principle that the checks and balances built into the Constitution tended to make government tyrannical.
They rested on the assertion that sovereignty lay with the people of the United States, not with the various political units.

Flag this QuestionQuestion 32 pts
When southern cotton producers moved West, they moved primarily to:
Missouri, Nebraska, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
northern parts of Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois.
southern parts of Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois.
Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas, and Louisiana.

Flag this QuestionQuestion 42 pts
Samuel Slater:
was a British manufacturer who decided to relocate his cotton mill to the United States in 1796 because of his republican sympathies.
had worked for the British inventor who developed the most advanced machinery for spinning cotton, and he was able to replicate these machines from memory after he immigrated to the United States in 1789.
became a partner with the American merchant Richard Arkwright to set up the first American cotton mill in Providence, Rhode Island, in 1790.
was a wealthy Boston merchant who in 1811 spent a holiday touring British textile mills and secretly took notes on what he saw, so as later to be able to build an improved version of the machinery in New England.

Flag this QuestionQuestion 52 pts
British textile manufacturers were able to out-compete American manufacturers because they possessed all of the following advantages except:
low shipping rates.
low interest rates.
low wages.
abundant cotton production at home.

Flag this QuestionQuestion 62 pts
During his presidency, John Ouincy Adams:
became the most popular president since George Washington but decided not to seek reelection, saying, If my country wants my services, she must ask for them.
joined with southern state officials to start the removal of native Americans from the Southeast.
failed to use political patronage to reward his supporters, maintaining hostile politicians in their offices as long as they were competent.
perfected the use of political patronage within his party.

Flag this QuestionQuestion 72 pts
The free workers who faced the worst working and living conditions were:
mill hands.
mechanics.
day laborers.
canal-boat crews.

Flag this QuestionQuestion 82 pts
In his view of states rights, John C. Calhoun be­lieved that:
each state supreme court had the power to determine whether a federal law would be law in that state.
a state convention in any state could declare a federal law null and void in that state alone; such a decree would stand only until the Constitution was amended by three-fourths of all the states to give the federal government the power to carry out the nullified law.
a state convention in any state could be called to declare a federal law null and void in all the states.
each state legislature should be consulted when national laws were passed.

Flag this QuestionQuestion 92 pts
Between roughly the 1790s and the 1840s there were three major streams, or migration patterns, of people settling the American interior. Which of the following wasnot one of these streams?
from the Northeast, upstate New York, and the Middle Atlantic states into the Great Lakes Basin
from the area of the old southern colonies into the Old Southwest
from New Orleans up the Mississippi River Valley into the Ohio and Missouri Valleys
from the Chesapeake region and the Upper South into the southern parts of Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois

Flag this QuestionQuestion 102 pts
For political advice, President Jackson relied on:
several key western senators, such as Henry Clay and Thomas Hart Benton.
his cabinet officers.
an informal group of advisors, called the Kitchen Cabinet.
Vice-President John C. Calhoun.

Flag this QuestionQuestion 112 pts
According to a letter by Margaret Bayard Smith, Andrew Jacksons first inauguration was:
a thoroughly raucous affair, with the Democratic Party encouraging Jacksons supporters to stage a boisterous parade before he took the oath and then to mob the White House reception
marred by his supporters mobbing the White House during a post-inaugural reception.
quiet and dignified; reports of raucous behavior by his supporters were unfounded.
the first such ceremony in history to feature military parades, honoring Jacksons victory in the Battle of New Orleans.

Flag this QuestionQuestion 122 pts
Cities such as Buffalo, Chicago, and Detroit grew rapidly in the 1830s because:
they facilitated the transfer of goods between the East and the West.
their mayors and other city officials used public funds to build new ports and harbors to increase trade.
they were located where goods had to be transferred from one mode of transportation to another.
their location facilitated the use of water power in factories.

Flag this QuestionQuestion 132 pts
In 1830 Jackson vetoed a bill to extend the National Road to Lexington, Kentucky, giving as his reason:
his preference that a company headed by his own supporters build the road.
that it was an infringement on the power of the states.
his fear that the road would facilitate the flight of fugitive slaves.
Kentuckians failure to support him in the 1828 election.

Flag this QuestionQuestion 142 pts
Jacksons practice of appointing loyal members of his party to public offices became known as:
the caucus system.
the spoils system.
patronage.
the rotation system.

Flag this QuestionQuestion 152 pts
From 1820 to 1840 the most rapidly growing American cities were:
those west of the Mississippi River.
the new industrial towns that sprang up along the fall line.
the cotton-trading centers of the South.
those west of the Appalachian Mountains.

Flag this QuestionQuestion 162 pts
All of the following men were candidates for the presidency in 1824 except:
John Quincy Adams
William H. Crawford.
James Monroe.
Henry Clay.

Flag this QuestionQuestion 172 pts
In Cincinnati, which became an important meatpacking center in the 1830s and 1840s, the introduction of factory methods in the packing industry meant that:
large numbers of farm families throughout southern Ohio and northern Kentucky were enlisted in an outwork system of hog butchers and meat picklers.
a few simple mechanical devices were used along an assembly line of meat packers who each had a specific task.
sophisticated meat-processing machinery was imported from Great Britain and operated by experienced factory workers.
rural workers were retrained in the new technical skills they would need as factory workers.

Flag this QuestionQuestion 182 pts
In an anonymous tract, The South Carolina Exposition and Protest, John C. Calhoun:
argued that only a referendum by the people could decide whether or not an act of Congress was constitutional.
argued that the federal government could never interfere with southern slavery
claimed that any dissident state had the option of seceding from the Union if three-fourths of the other states ratified an amendment giving Congress the power to enforce a law that the state considered unconstitutional.
refuted the arguments of Jefferson and Madison in the Kentucky and Virginia resolutions of 1798.

Flag this QuestionQuestion 192 pts
Which of the following can most accurately be described as significant characteristics of the industrial and market revolution that occurred in the American economy during the first half of the nineteenth century?
By 1860 the United States became the worlds fifth-ranking manufacturing nation, behind only Britain, France, Germany, and the Netherlands.
Business leaders of the Northeast drove mechanization forward and incorporated the trans-Appalachian West into the industrial economy.
Productivity declined as standards of industrial craftsmanship were lost.
All of the above.

Flag this QuestionQuestion 202 pts
In their sweep to victory in 1828, Jackson and Calhoun captured states in all of the following regions except:
New England.
the Upper South.
the Old Northwest.
the mid-Atlantic region.

Flag this QuestionQuestion 212 pts
All of the following were technological innovations introduced by the Connecticut inventor Eli Whitney except the:
prototype of the cotton gin.
first milling machine to cut metal.
first fully developed system of mass production.
idea of interchangeable parts in the production process.

Flag this QuestionQuestion 222 pts
The corrupt bargain was the political intrigue that resulted when the presidential election of 1824 was decided in the House of Representatives; the essence of the arrangement was:
Jacksons successful effort to get John C. Calhoun to withdraw from the presidential race and become his vice-presidential running mate, with the understanding that Calhoun would run for president in the next election.
John Quincy Adamss apparent deal with Henry Clay whereby Clays supporters in the House voted for Adams, who then named Clay his secretary of state.
bribes paid by John Quincy Adamss wealthy New England backers to purchase the votes of enough members of the House to ensure his election.
the efforts of the three slave-holding presidential candidates (Jackson, Crawford, and Clay) to unite to block the election of anti-slavery John Ouincy Adams; the effort collapsed when Clay refused to withdraw, thereby enabling Adams to win.

Flag this QuestionQuestion 232 pts
The development of machine tools is significant because they:
facilitated the repair of complicated equipment.
produced machines that made standardized parts rapidly and cheaply.
produced machines that could be run by women and children factory workers.
were of higher quality than similar British equipment.

Flag this QuestionQuestion 242 pts
The places where rivers cascaded from the Appalachian foothills to the Atlantic coastal plain are significant in the history of American industrialization because:
early industrial entrepreneurs had to avoid them in order to keep their  machinery from being damaged by rust.
here water-powered mills and factories were most efficiently operated.
the falling water made it easy to generate electrical power for factories.
they divided the areas of the eastern seaboard in which British machinery could be cheaply imported from places where transportation costs made the use of such machinery prohibitively expensive.

Flag this QuestionQuestion 252 pts
Beginning in the late 1810s, one state after another revised its constitution to broaden popular participation in politics. This change was primarily a consequence of:
an assault on the old deferential order of American society, driven by the settlement of the trans-Appalachian West.
the popularity of Andrew Jackson as a champion of democratic politics immediately following his victory over the British at New Orleans.
encouragement by presidents James Madison and James Monroe, both staunch Jeffersonian democrats.
the Second Great Awakening and especially the support that popular preachers like Charles Grandison Finney gave to the dignity of ordinary people.

Question 112 pts

According to a letter by Margaret Bayard Smith, Andrew Jacksons first inauguration was:

  a thoroughly raucous affair, with the Democratic Party encouraging Jacksons supporters to stage a boisterous parade before he took the oath and then to mob the White House reception
  marred by his supporters mobbing the White House during a post-inaugural reception.

 

  quiet and dignified; reports of raucous behavior by his supporters were unfounded.
  the first such ceremony in history to feature military parades, honoring Jacksons victory in the Battle of New Orleans.

 

 

Flag this Question

Question 122 pts

Cities such as Buffalo, Chicago, and Detroit grew rapidly in the 1830s because:

  they facilitated the transfer of goods between the East and the West.
  their mayors and other city officials used public funds to build new ports and harbors to increase trade.

 

  they were located where goods had to be transferred from one mode of transportation to another.
  their location facilitated the use of water power in factories.

 

 

Flag this Question

Question 132 pts

In 1830 Jackson vetoed a bill to extend the National Road to Lexington, Kentucky, giving as his reason:

  his preference that a company headed by his own supporters build the road.
  that it was an infringement on the power of the states.

 

  his fear that the road would facilitate the flight of fugitive slaves.
  Kentuckians failure to support him in the 1828 election.

 

 

Flag this Question

Question 142 pts

Jacksons practice of appointing loyal members of his party to public offices became known as:

  the caucus system.
  the spoils system.

 

  patronage.
  the rotation system.

 

 

Flag this Question

Question 152 pts

From 1820 to 1840 the most rapidly growing American cities were:

  those west of the Mississippi River.
  the new industrial towns that sprang up along the fall line.

 

  the cotton-trading centers of the South.
  those west of the Appalachian Mountains.

 

 

Flag this Question

Question 162 pts

All of the following men were candidates for the presidency in 1824 except:

  John Quincy Adams
  William H. Crawford.

 

  James Monroe.
  Henry Clay.

 

 

Flag this Question

Question 172 pts

In Cincinnati, which became an important meatpacking center in the 1830s and 1840s, the introduction of factory methods in the packing industry meant that:

  large numbers of farm families throughout southern Ohio and northern Kentucky were enlisted in an outwork system of hog butchers and meat picklers.
  a few simple mechanical devices were used along an assembly line of meat packers who each had a specific task.

 

  sophisticated meat-processing machinery was imported from Great Britain and operated by experienced factory workers.
  rural workers were retrained in the new technical skills they would need as factory workers.

 

 

Flag this Question

Question 182 pts

In an anonymous tract, The South Carolina Exposition and Protest, John C. Calhoun:

  argued that only a referendum by the people could decide whether or not an act of Congress was constitutional.
  argued that the federal government could never interfere with southern slavery

 

  claimed that any dissident state had the option of seceding from the Union if three-fourths of the other states ratified an amendment giving Congress the power to enforce a law that the state considered unconstitutional.
  refuted the arguments of Jefferson and Madison in the Kentucky and Virginia resolutions of 1798.

 

 

Flag this Question

Question 192 pts

Which of the following can most accurately be described as significant characteristics of the industrial and market revolution that occurred in the American economy during the first half of the nineteenth century?

  By 1860 the United States became the worlds fifth-ranking manufacturing nation, behind only Britain, France, Germany, and the Netherlands.
  Business leaders of the Northeast drove mechanization forward and incorporated the trans-Appalachian West into the industrial economy.

 

  Productivity declined as standards of industrial craftsmanship were lost.
  All of the above.

 

 

Flag this Question

Question 202 pts

In their sweep to victory in 1828, Jackson and Calhoun captured states in all of the following regions except:

  New England.
  the Upper South.

 

  the Old Northwest.
  the mid-Atlantic region.

What were the possible causes of the Great Depression?

From last week, you could see some of the concerns of spending in the 1920s. This week, we will look at the Great Depression, from a stock market crash, federal government involvement or lack there of, changes in leadership, and methods to generate change. I think it is obvious we never want to face these times again. Thus, I think if we learn from this history we can try to use our political, economic, and social power to protect the US from ever facing such harsh times again.

Please use OpenStax chapter 25/26 or Exploring American Histories Chapter 22 to explore the time period. You can use outside resources as well. You need to answer a question from List A and a question from List B as your initial post.

List A

1. What were the possible causes of the Great Depression? To what extent could a stock market crash of the intensity of 1929 occur again in America?

2. Why did people feel so confident before the stock market crash of 1929? What were some factors that led to irrational investing?

3. Why was Herbert Hoover’s response to the initial months of the Great Depression so limited in scope?

4. How did the cultural products of the Great Depression serve to reflect, shape, and assuage Americans’ fears and concerns during this volatile period? How do our cultural products—such as books, movies, and music—reflect and reinforce our values in our own times?

5. To what extent did the Great Depression catalyze important changes in Americans’ perceptions of themselves, their national identity, and the role of their government? What evidence of these shifts can you find in the politics and values of our own times?

6. Why is Herbert Hoover so often blamed for the Great Depression? To what extent is such an assessment fair or accurate?

List B:

1. To what extent was Franklin Roosevelt’s overwhelming victory in the 1932 presidential election a reflection of his own ideas for change? To what extent did it represent public discontent with Herbert Hoover’s lack of answers?

2. Whom did the New Deal help the least? What hardships did these individuals continue to suffer? Why were Roosevelt’s programs unsuccessful in the alleviation of their adversities?

3. Was Franklin Roosevelt successful at combatting the Great Depression? How did the New Deal affect future generations of Americans?

4. What were the key differences between the First New Deal and the Second New Deal? On the whole, what did each New Deal set out to accomplish?

5. What challenges did Roosevelt face in his work on behalf of African Americans? What impact did the New Deal have ultimately on race relations?