week 1 assignment predictive analytics techniques 1

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The purpose of this assignment is to use predictive analytics techniques and the graphs and charts associated with these techniques to forecast outcomes and make business decisions.

Using specified data files, chapter example files, and templates from the “Topic 1 Student Data, Template, and Example Files” topic material, complete Chapter 12 Problems 28, 30, 34, 46, 60, 62 (b through e), and 63 from the textbook. Use the Palisade DecisionTools Excel software to complete these problems where requested and applicable. Problem 60 should be completed using only Excel.

To receive full credit on the assignment, complete the following.

  1. Ensure that the Palisade software output is included with your submission.
  2. Ensure that Excel files include the associated cell functions and/or formulas if functions and/or formulas are used.
  3. Include a written response to all narrative questions presented in the problem by placing it in the associated Excel file.
  4. Place each problem in its own Excel file. Ensure that your first and last name are in your Excel file names.

Chapter 12 Problems 28, 30, 34, 46, 60, 62 (b through e), and 63 from the textbook:

28. The file P12_10.xlsx contains annual revenues for a convenience store. If you want to forecast revenue for the next few years with the moving averages method, what span should you use? Will any span work well?.

30. The file P02_28.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with one or more spans of your choice to forecast U.S. retail sales for the next 12 months. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?

34. Consider the American Express closing price data in the file P12_16.xlsx.
a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think should be used for forecasting? Why?
b. Use Holt’s exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using no holdout period and requesting 20 days of future forecasts. Use the default smoothing constants of 0.1.
c. Repeat part b, optimizing the smoothing constants. Does it make much of an improvement?
d. Repeat parts a and b, this time using a holdout period of 50 days.
e. Write a short report to summarize your results.

46. The file P12_46.xlsx contains monthly time series data for total U.S. retail sales of building materials, garden equipment, and supplies dealers.
a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern.
b. Use the Deseasonalize option in StatTools to forecast the deseasonalized data for each month of the next year using the moving average method with an appropriate span.
c. Does Holt’s exponential smoothing method, with optimal smoothing constants, outperform the moving average method employed in part b? Demonstrate why or why not.

60. The file P12_60.xlsx lists annual revenues (in millions of dollars) for Nike. Create a time series graph of these data. Then superimpose a trend line with Excel’s Trendline option. Which of the possible Trendline options seems to provide the best fit? Using this option, what are your forecasts for the next two years?

62. The file P12_62.xlsx contains data on a motel chain’s revenue and advertising.
b. Use simple exponential smoothing to make predictions for the motel chain’s revenues during the next four quarters.
c. Use Holt’s method to make forecasts for the motel chain’s revenues during the next four quarters.
d. Use Winters’ method to determine predictions for the motel chain’s revenues during the next four quarters.
e. Which of these forecasting methods would you expect to be the most accurate for these data?

63. The file P12_63.xlsx contains data on monthly U.S. permits for new housing units (in thousands of houses).
a. Using Winters’ method, find values of , , and that yield an RMSE as small as possible. Does this method track the housing crash in recent years?
b. Although we have not discussed autocorrelation for smoothing methods, good forecasts derived from smoothing methods should exhibit no substantial autocorrelation in their forecast errors. Is this true for the forecasts in part a?
c. At the end of the observed period, what is the forecast of housing sales during the next few months?

PLEASE USE THE ATTACHED “MIS-665-RS-Topic-1-Student-Data-Template-and-Example-Files.zip” TO GAIN THE DATA FOR EACH QUESTION.

 

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Welfare 110-1 | Psychology homework help

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 Post an explanation of how drug policies affect Joe’s circumstances, as described in the case study. Then, explain any gaps in service you found in Joe’s case as a result of the drug policies described in the case study. Finally, describe a strategy you might use to address these gaps or make changes to the policies that affect Joe. 

300-400 Words

References: 

 

Plummer, S.-B., Makris, S., & Brocksen, S. M. (Eds.). (2014). Social work case studies: Foundation year. Baltimore: MD: Laureate International Universities Publishing. [Vital Source e-reader].

  • “Working with Clients with Dual Diagnosis: The Case of Joe” (pp. 77–78)

 

Popple, P. R., & Leighninger, L. (2015). The policy-based profession: An introduction to social welfare policy analysis for social workers. (6th ed.). Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education.

  • Chapter 8, “Mental Health and Substance Abuse” (pp. 164-193)

Beerma, D. (2012). Advocacy handbook for social workers. National Association of Social Workers – North Carolina Chapter. Retrieved fromhttp://c.ymcdn.com/sites/naswnc.site-ym.com/resource/resmgr/Advocacy/Advocacyhandbook.pdf

MAKE SURE TO USE CASE STUDY ATTACHED 

week 7 assignment final paper–music and influence

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Instructions

Synthesize what you have learned about media and society in this course through the writing of this final paper about music and its influences. Music is a medium that has shaped the ages.  As noted throughout your texts, social movements have existed and evolved through many methods and vehicles. Music is one of those vehicles and music represents more than entertainment. It has spoken for generations and exemplified belief systems.

For your final paper assignment, you are to write a 3-4 page research essay (excluding APA title page, appendix, and reference sheet or bibliography) that addresses the following questions and contexts. In this paper, explore the relationship of music to each decade from the 1960s through 2000-2010.  Your paper should discuss high profile events or movements that happened in each decade and for each decade pick a song that personifies or represents the primary “mood” of the decade. In the essay:

  1. cite examples of how activism and social justice are exemplified through music
  2. show how technology and social media influenced the listener’s reactions

The summary portion of the essay (perhaps at least 3/4 page of the entire essay) should draw connections between the decades and synthesize your findings.  For instance, discuss what are commonalities of movements and people who are represented throughout the decades?   Are these songs anthems for each decade or do the stand the test of time with other generations?  Are there common threads that connect some decades with others?

Grading Guidelines

  • identify events in each decade
  • explain how events are connected to what the song represents
  • show how lyrics are used in the messaging (if full lyrics are used in the paper, they must be attached as an appendix and do not count in the 3-4 total pages)
  •  help justify your opinions with 3-5 credible sources with proper source citation throughout the paper and in the bibliography
  •  utilize terminology from the course readings when applicable
  • show how technology and social media or other media outlets influenced the listener’s reactions
  • appropriate grammar and structure; college-level writing
  •  the summary is an appropriate length and draws connections between the decades and synthesizes the findings, such as what are the commonalities of the movements and people represented and addresses the question, “are these songs only anthems for each individual decade or do they also provide representation for and transfer to, other generations and decades?

The essay should be in 12pt type and must be properly cited throughout the paper in APA format. Support your responses with research from the Learning Resources. Use APA in-text citations where necessary and cite any outside sources. Create an APA Reference List at the end of the document.

Submit your responses in the file submission area for this assignment. If you choose to “add a file” by attaching a MSWord or PDF document, please also copy and paste your response into the comments area.

3 Day Diet Analysis Assignment

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Specifications: Document what you eat and drink over 3 full days (choose 2 week days and 1 weekend day). Each student must assess their average intake (this means add all 3 days of each nutrient and divide by 3 to arrive at the average), and provide a 1 page word document that includes the following:
    A – The students average intake of each nutrient.
    B –  All work for the following must be shown. Estimate energy requirements using the DRI equation on page 156 of textbook. Start by listing: height, actual weight, gender, age, and physical activity factor. Calculate your BMI using the equation on page 157. Indicate if your BMI is underweight, normal, overweight, obese, or extremely obese.  If your BMI is in a normal range, use your actual weight to calculate your energy requirements using equation on page 156.  If your BMI is under or over normal, you need to use the midpoint of your normal BMI to estimate your energy requirements using the equation on page 156.
    C – Determine whether continuing to eat the way your average 3 day diet analysis calculations resulted will produce weight gain, weight loss or weight maintenance.
    D – Finally, conclude if your current diet intake could precipitate in a disease process that we have covered and why. indicate changes you can make or what you will do to maintain a healthy lifestyle. This should be a the largest portion of the assignment.  I want to see critical thinking through each nutrients.
Please limit report to no longer than 1 page when answering questions A-D. No cover page is necessary or bibliography.