Match each of the stories below with at least one of the following phenomena: availability bias, base-rate neglect, con?

  1. (30 points) Match each of the stories below with at least one of the following phenomena: availability bias, base-rate neglect, con?rmation bias, conjunction fallacy, disjunction fallacy and explain brie?y what the bias entails and why it ?ts the story.
    (a) (6 points) Claire?s car is old and has not been well-maintained. Her friend who is an experienced car mechanic, warns her that there is 5 per cent probability of breaking down every kilometre. Claire really wants to visit her mother in the nursing home that is about twenty kilometres away. Pondering her friend?s warning that the car has a 5 per cent probability of breaking down each kilometre, she ?gures that the probability of breaking down during the trip cannot be much higher than ?fteen per cent. She is shocked when her car breaks down half way to the nursing home.
    (b) (6 points) Denise lost all her luggage the last time he checked it in. She vows never again to check her luggage in, even if it means having unpleasant arguments with fl?ight attendants.
    (c) (6 points) Although having never travelled outside the ACT, Clarence gets him-self tested for malaria. The test comes back positive. Convinced he will die of malaria, he asks his his priest to perform the Viaticum or Last Rites.
    (d) (6 points) Doug has always been convinced that people of Roma (gyspy) descent are prone to thievery. Several of his co-workers have a Roma background and he knows they are not thieves. One day a friend shares a story about two people who looked like gypsies?stealing goods from a grocery store. ?I knew it!?Doug says to himself.
    (e) (6 points) Lena does not think it is likely that Greece will leave the Euro-zone and start issuing again its own currency, the Drachma. She does think it is quite likely that the UK will vote to leave the European Union in the upcoming referendum that PM David Cameron has promised to hold before 2017. However, when asked what she thinks about the possibility that Greece will leave the Euro-zone and the UK will vote to leave the European Union she thinks that is more likely than the possibility that Greece leaves the Euro-zone.
    2. (30 points) Consider the following experiment that Kahneman and Tversky ran to study base-rate neglect. In Problem A, subjects are told that Jack has been drawn from a population of 30% engineers amd 70% lawyers and that Jack wears a pocket protector.
    (a) (5 points) Let pA denote the probability that Jack is an engineer, given that he wears a pocket protector. Using Bayes?rule, show that the odds that Jack is an engineer as opposed to a lawyer are given by:
    pA
    1 ? pA
    = Pr (pocket protectorj Jack is an engineer)
    Pr (pocket protector j Jack is a lawyer) [1]
    0:3
    0:7
    In Problem B, subjects are told that Jack has been drawn from a population of 70% engineers and 30% lawyers and that Jack wears a pocket protector.
    (b) (5 points) Let pB denote the probability that Jack is an engineer, given that he wears a pocket protector. Show that: pB
    1 ? pB = Pr (pocket protectorj Jack is an engineer)
    Pr (pocket protector j Jack is a lawyer) [1]
    0:7
    0:3
    And conclude that, if subjects form beliefs according to the laws of probability, it must be the case that:
    pA= (1 ? pA)
    pB= (1 ? pB)
    = 9
    49
    . ( )
    (c) (5 points) Explain intuitively why the odds ratio in ( ) does not depend on Pr (pocket protector j Jack is an engineer).
    (d) (5 points) Explain why Kahneman and Tversky set up the experiment in this way.
    (e) (5 points) What values of pA= (1 ? pA)
    pB= (1 ? pB) imply that subjects exhibit base-rate neglect?
    (f) (5 points) Kahneman and Tversky ran this experiment as a between-subjects
    design ?different groups of subjects responded to Problems A and B. How might their results have changed if they had run a within-subjects design ?where each subject responded to both problems? Why do you think Kahneman and Tversky chose a between-subjects design.
    3. (40 points) Anna is an investor who observes two quarters of performance by Bruce, a mutual-fund manager. Each quarter Bruce has probability p of beating the market and probability 1 ? p of failing to beat the market. The probability p is either 0, 1=2 or 1, depending on whether Bruce is, respectively, a bad, mediocre or good fund manager. Bruce?s performance is independent from one quarter to the next. Hence, Bruce?s performance can be modelled correctly as draws with replacement from an urn with 2 balls, where a proportion p of the balls corresponds to good performance and a proportion 1?p of the balls correspond to bad performance. Anna, however, incorrectly ?thinks ?the balls are being drawn without replacement.
    (a) (10 points) Identify which heuristic this model is intended to capture, and describe this heuristic in one sentence.
    (b) (5 points) Suppose for now that Anna knows for sure that p = 1=2 (that is, Bruce is a mediocre fund manager) and she has just observed one good quarter?s performance by Bruce. What is her prediction about Bruce’?s performance in the next quarter? Explain your answer.
    (c) (15 points) Suppose now that Anna doesn?’t know p, except that it can be either 0, 1=2 or 1 and it is equally likely to be any one of those three values. What does she conclude if she sees: (i) two good performances by Brian? (ii) two bad performances by Brian? (iii) one good and one bad quarter of performance? Are these conclusions correct? Explain the reasoning behind your answer.
    (d) (10 points) Explain how the prediction of this model in part (c) (i) is related to the hot-hand fallacy in basketball.

Employ strategies to affect the development, implementation, and consequences of policies at the institutional, local, national, and international levels.

PREPARING THE PAPER
target communication strategies that support an effective policymaking visit. Include a minimum of five (6) classic references or current references (published within the past 5 years) that support your policy plan, the message, recommendations, and follow-up.
Planning Your Visit (Part A)
Guidelines and Grading Rubric
PURPOSE
The purpose of this assignment is to: (a) identify communication strategies that support an effective policy making-presentation/visit (CO #2); (b) deliver a message and make recommendations (CO #2, 3), and (c) communicate ideas in a clear, succinct, and scholarly manner. (CO #3)
COURSE OUTCOMES
This assignment enables the student to meet the following course outcomes:
(CO #2) Employ strategies to affect the development, implementation, and consequences of policies at the institutional, local, national, and international levels. (PO 4, 8, 10)

(CO #3) Communicate with policymakers to advocate for effective policies that affect nurses and nursing, consumers, or the health care system. (PO 2, 3, 10)

(CO #4) Analyze the historical, ethical, and political contexts of health care policy and the consequences of policy implementation. (PO 6, 10)

(CO #5) Advocate for institutional, local, national, and international policies that influence health care and its consumers and nurses and their nursing practice. (PO 2, 10)
DUE DATE: Sunday 11:59 p.m. MT at the end of Week 5
TOTAL POINTS: 100 points
REQUIREMENTS
Assignment Criteria for Presentation
1. Introduce your chosen policy issue, the current status, and an overview of your plan for a legislative visit.
2. Articulate key communication strategies involved in your approach to the legislator including plan, message, and recommendations under each of the Planning Your Visit Ungraded Worksheet 2 sections using headings in your paper. Prescription of Medications by APNs
3. Provide an analysis of empirical evidence of effective communication strategies in policymaking including plan, message, and follow-up.
4. Provide specific examples of the impact and/or importance of a successful visit/presentation to nursing.
5. Provide concluding statements summarizing the content.
6. Paper will be 5 pages, excluding title and reference pages, and in APA format 6th edition.
7. Five non-text book references are required as minimum.

Using the case study details provided. Apply the theory, terms and concepts encountered throughout the subject to analyse and discuss the behaviours Bill (refer to the text book & other readings).

Details of Case Study / Essay: 2,000 word approx

Using the case study details provided. Apply the theory, terms and concepts encountered throughout the subject to analyse and discuss the behaviours Bill (refer to the text book & other readings). An essay format is required including an abstract, introduction, discussion, conclusion and a reference list.

Case Study:
Essay- Scenario

Bill who is 65 years of age lives with chronic hypertension. Bill lives in a small coastal town and describes himself as semi-retired. He works part-time at the local golf course as a groundsman. Bill is married however, the marriage has experienced extreme difficulties over the past 5 years following his diagnosis. His wife Betty describes him as a crabby old man who is constantly complaining about everything. Bill has two grown children and 5 grandchildren who all live in distant states.
He loves to go fishing in his spare time and is a keen gardener however, is finding it increasingly difficult to perform heavy manual labour due to his age and declining health. Bill is also extremely overweight and avoids going to see his GP as much as possible. He likes to eat take away food and makes many poor life style choices such as drinking too much red wine and not exercising enough. Betty is now threatening to leave Bill and is seeking counselling in relation to the unhappy state of this marriage and the consequent stress and anxiety it is causing her. Bill is in denial that there is a problem with the marriage and has started spending a large amount of time at the local Hotel playing the pokies. Consequently, the familys financial status is not solid as money seems to keep disappearing at a rapid rate. Recently, they have not had enough money to pay the rates and are rapidly slipping behind in home loan repayments. Bill has also recently been experiencing problems with his vision, but refuses to seek help to rectify this choosing to buy cheap five dollar spectacles from the local chemist.
Bill is worried that if his health declines further his wife will put him in a nursing home. That will be the end of me to go into one of those dog box homeshe told his next-door neighbour. Bill also frequently indicates its my life and no one is going to tell me what to do- those young quack doctors think they know it all and just want to pump me with pills. At the doctors office last week, Bill stated to the registered nurse that since he had been taking the blood pressure pills he was feeling a little better and had been able to work in the garden more on the weekend and did not need to take a breather so often at work, He requested a repeat prescription from the doctor. In relation to his weight he also indicated that hed heard about Dr Slims new weight loss program that was advertised on the TV and wanted to know if those shakes really work?. He then admitted he was only trying to loose weight due to his wifes nagging. if she could learn to cook better Id eat at home more he said.

***Note: Below are supporting summaries for the essay (some theories/concepts have been highlighted in yellow)

Summary 1 The Big Picture what is Health

Term: Self-Efficacy: the perception on the part of the individual that they can influence and control their own out comes

Everybody perceives sickness and health in different ways. Try out the forum under discussion topics week 1 and post your own personal definition of health. Health perceptions could change based on current life circumstances. It is interesting to try and identify when someone actually considers themselves sick or ill – was it when they first noticed symptoms – was it when they were diagnosed by someone (who may or may not have been their doctor).

The second area of importance is the difference between the two models of health:

(i) medical and
(ii) biopsychosocial.

Although obviously the ideal model of health is the biopsychosocial model, which looks at a person in an holistic way. If I was acutely ill, I would like to ensure that initially the health care team is looking at me thought the eyes of a medical model.

The last important area is understanding the differences between the measures of health and illness; morbidity, incidence, mortality and prevalence. You will come across these terms over and over again, it is important to sort out the differences now.
When you meet a client on your clinical placement or person from within your own social networks or the person you have chosen for your case study .think about why they consider themselves ill or not.
If they don’t consider themselves ill why not?
You could ask them – what was it that alerted you to the fact that you could be sick?
How do they usually know they are sick? Do they wait for a doctor’s diagnosis?
Is there a difference in the way different environments view health? Look at the clinical area that you are placed in or have encountered – what model of health does it largely follow? What model of health does your client usually adhere to? A good way of understanding your theory is to ask the same questions of yourself. Then ask yourself why? Are you a person that rarely visits a doctor? Why is that? Is it because

_________________________________________________________________________________
Summary 2 – Reactions to Illness

The first part of this week’s readings is ‘Responses to illness’.
We can study this by looking at Ethel (from the role play) as an example.

The first response is ‘physical’. This includes symptoms of the illness and for Ethel it is her rectal and vaginal bleeding. Her emotional response is ‘anxiety’. She does worry about it.
Her cognitive responses include thinking about what would happen if the illness was severe – to Cyril, the bowls club and her family.
Her behavioural responses include information seeking – talking to her neighbour.

Illness behaviour is the process of moving from being a well person to being an ill patient. Your text explains it as moving through a number of decisions. Again we can simplify it by looking at Ethel.

First of all she asks ‘Are my symptoms normal?’ This is the means of Ethel validating that she is not ill. She answers yes – most women have some type of changes down below.

The next question is ‘What choices are available for dealing with the symptoms?’ For Ethel the symptoms have not gone away so she has asked Cyril and her neighbour. Cyril has downplayed her concerns ‘It’s all in your head’ and Mavis has stated that she can’t be sick because her sister had bowel cancer and was skinny whereas Ethel has ‘some weight’.

The next decision to be made is to whether to seek help from a professional.
(i) The first decider is perceived interference of symptoms with vocational, physical or social activities or personal relationships. Ethel doesn’t seem to perceive that her symptoms interfere in the above ways.
(ii) The next possible impetus to encourage a person to seek help is a personal – crisis – again not applicable to Ethel.
(iii) The last – pressure from others to seek help – also is not an impetus for Ethel as Cyril and Mavis reinforce to her that she doesn’t need help. However, the trigger – ‘the symptom has gone on long enough or past a self-imposed deadline’ seem to be being an impetus for Ethel to think that she may need to seek help and allowed her to be easily influenced by myself to do so.

What can the professionals provide? Ethel felt that the doctor was too young and too male for her to be able to comfortably explain her symptoms. So this was a problem for her. You will see later that when the nurse was able to organise for her to see a female – she was much happier.

Use these concepts when you talk to your case study – to reflect on how they initially decided to seek help.

There is little evidence from Ethel that she took a sick role. However, what is important to remember that it a set of rights and obligations. Or another way of putting it – if the person obliges -they are then able to have the rights. As the textbook suggests – there is a number of moral implications with this. For example if a person hasn’t ‘obliged’ with the known ways of preventing illness such as health eating, not smoking etc. and become ill – has this person the right to receive the same care as someone who has taken care of themselves and become ill? This is something to consider later when you look at rationalisation of health resources.

Synthesize knowledge from values theory, ethics and legal regulatory statutes, and develop your personal philosophy for a career as an advanced practice nurse.

Discussion Question

Considering your role specialization (nurse educator, nurse informatics, nurse administrator, and family or adult-gerontology NP), rank the top three current trends or issues that you believe to be most important with regard to credentialing. You will want to identify two strategies that address how these issues will strengthen advanced nursing practice. Synthesize knowledge from values theory, ethics and legal regulatory statutes, and develop your personal philosophy for a career as an advanced practice nurse.